Strategy is Everything - Mexico 2022
Source: Mclaren F1
The build-up to the Mexican Grand Prix was its usual festive self. But the atmosphere was a shocking juxtaposition to the lustre of the race. As if it was predetermined, Max Verstappen took another race victory – making it a record-breaking 14 wins in a single season. But was that the only storyline for the Mexican Grand Prix? In what is now becoming the notable battle left, Mclaren took another step forward in their contest with Alpine for P4 in the constructor’s championship. And it was Daniel Ricciardo, not Lando Norris that spearheaded the campaign for a refreshing turn in form for the Australian. So how did the Australian turn his fortunes around? Let’s jump straight into it.
Ricciardo’s Pain Finally Bears Some Fruit
Chart 1: Race Story – Cumulative Delta Plot
As the race got underway, Mclaren started on the back foot compared to Alpine. Despite qualifying in P8 and P11, both Norris and Ricciardo fell back 2 places to P10 and P13 respectively while Alonso and Ocon moved up to P7 and P9. With DRS trains and overheating issues playing a part early on, it seemed that Alpine would continue to stretch their track position advantage. The race continued in this fashion as shown in Chart 1 above, with the presence of Valtteri Bottas serving as an expanding wedge between Alonso on the other drivers. This allowed Alonso to build a sizeable gap to the competition while enjoying the benefits of clean air.
Chart 2: Race Pace Compared
The same cannot be said for teammate Ocon who was falling back as his pace was beginning to deteriorate as was the case with Norris as shown in Chart 2 above. Despite all drivers starting the race on the medium tyre and even having similar pace from laps 10 to 20, Alonso was the only driver that was able to continue extracting good pace while also extending his stint. Alonso’s pace did start to decay by lap 32, but it was of little consequence as he had established a tyre offset advantage while having better pace over the others.
Ricciardo on the other hand had the worst pace of the lot for the majority of the first stint. It was only until about lap 25 that Ricciardo’s pace started to outmatch that of Norris and Ocon. And while Ricciardo’s pace continued to be better on a relative basis (until the pitstop phase), his pace did start to deteriorate in absolute terms. But Ricciardo continued on with his stint, going much deeper into the race than any of his other rivals.
Chart 3: Tyre Strategy Summary
This was all to set up for the alternate strategy. Chart 3 summarises the tyre strategies deployed across the field. Notably, Ocon, Norris and Alonso all opted for the medium-hard approach while Ricciardo was the only one to employ the medium-soft.
Chart 4: Tyre Wear Compared
The hard tyre was woeful to say the least – as evidenced in Chart 4 above and by the experiences of the Mercedes duo in their contest with Red Bull and Verstappen. Despite them being fast on the medium tyre, they put themselves out of contention for the fight at the front as they struggled to fire the tyres up and find grip on the slippery track surface compared to Verstappen who was comfortable on the mediums after benefitting from the pace and grip of the softs in the first stint. Ricciardo was set to achieve the reverse of this, albeit with even better results as the Australian would be using the softer rubber later in the race when the car is lighter. So, with that, all the pieces were in place for Ricciardo to produce a late charge into the points.
The advantage of the soft tyre over the hard tyre shown in Chart 4 is replicated in the insights of Chart 2 earlier. Put simply, Ricciardo was at least a second a lap faster than his competitors and without any sign of serious adverse tyre wear. This artefact can be seen in Chart 4, with it taking at least 25 laps before the hard tyre began to outperform the soft tyre. But given Ricciardo had essentially followed Pirelli’s Recommendation number 4 almost to a tee, he only had to survive another two laps of declining pace in order to comfortably execute the strategy.
Coming back to Chart 1 previously, the success of the performance is clear to see. From lap 45, Ricciardo easily cut through the field and worked his way closer to the front while others either went sideways or backwards. The charge took him all the way to a P7 result despite being issued with a 10-second time penalty for a rather clumsy tangle with Yuki Tsunoda that took the AlphaTauri driver out of the race. Not only was Ricciardo’s drive a huge help to McLaren in their battle with Alpine, but it was also big for his own confidence after a year that can only be described as a struggle at best.
Chart 5: Alonso’s Engine Issue
To help Mclaren further, Alonso was again another victim of reliability issues, as his engine failed to produce peak power from lap 52 onwards. The effect of this can be seen in Chart 5 above, with his lap 53 trace failing to match the speed shown in his prior lap. This issue doesn’t improve and eventually turns terminal on lap 64 as seen in Chart 1 earlier. This promoted both Mclaren drivers up the field. But the retirement was more costly than this, as it is likely Alonso would have finished in P7 had he continued with his pre-issue pace. In the end, Alpine suffer another material points swing at the hands of reliability.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Only 7 points separate Mclaren and Alpine in their fight for P4 in the constructor’s championship with 2 races to go. The outcome could still go either way, especially if incidents or reliability are to play another hand in things. Mercedes missed out on another chance at victory this weekend. Can they turn the tide in the final two races? There are still some open storylines as we approach the twilight of the 2022 season. I’ll see you at the next one.
