F1 Post-Race Analysis: Austria 2020 Becomes an Homage to Brazil 2019
The opening race of the 2020 season could not have been better. With Mercedes dominance across Friday and Saturday, the race looked set for a 1–2 finish for the silver arrows.
Thankfully, this was anything but.
The race was reminiscent of something out of the 80s with almost half the field conking out due to mechanical failures that created three safety car periods. This imbrued the race with uncertainty, different strategies, and intense wheel to wheel action that saw controversial penalties and unexpected podiums. Let’s take a look at everything that unfolded and what another race around the Red Bull Ring could throw up this coming weekend.
Figure 1: 2020 Austrian Grand Prix Lap Chart
As always let’s begin with the race lap chart above that summarises the ongoings of the Grand Prix into one image. Lap zero represents the starting grid and changes in the lines represent changes in position throughout the race. Any line that does not extend to the far right-hand side of the chart is likely due to retirements or not finishing on the lead lap of the race. Safety car periods are denoted by the dark gray boxes. Note: data for laps 9–14 was not available and has hence been filtered out.
So what are the talking points?
Unreliability Claims the Scalps of Many
There were an astonishing 9 retirements in this year’s Austrian Grand Prix, all of which being mechanical. This is the most in any race that’s occurred since the turbo-hybrid era commenced in 2014. On top of this, car reliability has been improving since 2017. The retirements in this Grand Prix alone account for 36% of mechanical retirements from the previous year.
Figure 2: Retirements in the Turbo-Hybrid Era
Figure 3: Retirement Classification in Turbo-Hybrid Era
Figure 4: Retirement Classification in Austria during the Turbo-Hybrid Era
The heights and heat of Austria are notorious for being an engine killer (as discussed previously here). Teams go to great lengths in tackling the challenge by opening up the bodywork to allow for better cooling of the car. Interestingly it wasn’t the heat that killed the cars, but the curbs.
The track is covered in large yellow “sausage” curbs that can easily damage the front-wings and/or underfloors of Formula 1 cars. COVID-19 has taken a large toll on the finances of all the teams. To limit any further costs due to car damage, a few of the sausage curbs were removed from the final two corners of the track — replaced by sensors to detect any track limits infringements. Despite this, there are other ‘more standard’ curbs on the track that still managed to cause headaches. It was the frequency of these curbs that did the damage to the car as opposed to their size or angle.
There were differing issues for different teams but some commonality resided in the effect on sensors in the car. For Mercedes, it was related to their gearbox, whilst Racing Point and Williams saw issues related to their power units. Red Bull also struggled as Verstappen retired early due to other suspected sensor issues and Albon towards the closing stages of the Grand Prix. Renault had issues via Ricciardo and Alpha Tauri suffered suspension failure towards the last laps of the race. It is unclear if curbs had an impact on the brake issues encountered by the HAAS team as well as if it contributed to Alfa Romeo’s wheel nut failure.
Whilst these characteristics were a reminder of the importance of bringing the car home, more importantly, it allowed for unpredictability via safety cars (in this case multiple).
Safety-Cars Neutralised the Race
There was no hiding the pace advantage of Mercedes over the rest of the field — particularly by Bottas as he galloped away from a chasing Verstappen. It was harder to see from Hamilton in the early stages of the race as he started from P5 on the grid (following a 3-place grid drop due to an infringement in qualifying on Saturday). However, once Hamilton had cleared the traffic, he was reigning in the gap between himself and his teammate. This was further abetted after the first safety car period that essentially ‘restarted’ the race. These observations are best highlighted in the chart below.
Figure 5: Austria 2020 — Gap to Race Leader
Note: Missing data for Laps 1 and 9–14. As such final intervals will not match the formal results of the Grand Prix
ll the hard work that Bottas had achieved in the first stint of the race was wiped clean as Magnussen had his brake failure going into turn 3. The news was extra-grim after accounting for the fact that Bottas had already received messages from his team to ‘look after the car due to gearbox sensor issues’. There was a silver lining at least, as the safety car period allowed him to take a relatively ‘cheap’ pitstop and get off the soft tyres he was beginning to struggle on. Perez took this opportunity to move onto the medium tyre (whilst everyone else went onto the hard tyre). On-paper this would give Perez a pace advantage and be in the running for a podium position.
The first restart allowed for Bottas to create a large gap to the rest of the field — except for Hamilton. Hamilton was no longer impeded by traffic and could hence follow his teammate relatively closely. Though the teammate battle was ‘called-off’ to avoid any reliability issues with the car.
The second and third safety car periods (consecutive to each other) proved more crucial to the race result. Once again, the race interval was reset but more importantly, Mercedes opted not to pit for new tyres. Perez took the same decision to stay on his current medium tyres whilst the majority of the field took the opportunity to switch their hard tyres to either soft or medium tyres.
This choice would prove to be instrumental in determining the podium outcomes. Switching to soft tyres gave Albon the grip and pace advantage over Hamilton as the race restarted for the 2nd time. As he went for the overtaking manoeuvre into turn 4, it looked like he was on for the win. That is until he was spun around by a mistake from Hamilton which would garner him with a 5 second time penalty. This penalty became the ticket for a fast charging Leclerc and Norris to take their respective spots on the podium.
A Close and Unexpected Fight for the Podium
With only 10 or so laps left, new rubber and lighter cars due to burned off fuel, the race was on to steal P2 and P3 from a penalised Hamilton. Perez had a weak hand in this fight due to struggling on older rubber whilst also getting slugged with a 5 second time penalty of his own. The below charts make the point of how the Racing point couldn’t stick with the front of the pack.
Figure 6: Austria 2020 — Gap to Hamilton
Note: Missing data for Laps 1 and 9–14. As such final intervals will not match the formal results of the Grand Prix
Figure 7: Austria 2020 — Lap Times
More interesting is the out of no-where pace from Leclerc in this final stint of the race. The Ferarri had been a dog of a car for the whole weekend not least in the first two stints of the race as the gap to the race leader was larger than that of both McLaren and Racing Point (see Figure 6). This is also clear in Figure 7 as it was only in the final stint that the Ferrari was able to lap at a pace quicker than the mid-field teams and be within the range of the Mercedes.
Of note is the performance of Mclaren and Lando Norris. The young driver performed faultlessly over the last two laps — scoring not only the fastest lap of the Grand Prix but also bringing his car within 0.2 seconds of Hamilton on the timesheet to clinch his maiden podium. The events mirror those of Brazil in late 2019 as Carlos Sainz secured his maiden podium in that race. The result makes it 2 podiums in 3 races for the Woking team and could generate the momentum for more this season given the strong performance of their car this year.
An honourable mention should go to our race winner: Valtteri Bottas. On paper it looked easy: (1) he had pole position, (2) he led every lap. But what the statistics will miss is that he managed each of the three safety-car restarts perfectly whilst managing a car that had supposed ‘critical’ gearbox issues.
Would the Race Have Been the Same Without the Safety-Cars?
Undoubtedly no, the race would have transpired very differently. Figure 5 above carries the likely answer. If we just focus on the first stint, the gap to the race leader is instructive of how the win would likely have been dueled between the two Mercedes drivers — with the rest of the field too far back. This would also reduce the chance of Hamilton coming down with the same penalty as we saw this weekend.
Also important to remember is that the safety-cars were dependent on the retirements, so we would need to consider what impact Verstappen could have had on the race. Not to mention, Perez’s call to move to mediums could have paid dividends.
Finally, it is hard to say Ferrari would have finished as high as they did. Studying Figure 5 once again, Ferrari’s pace was slower than McLaren’s and the change in tyre compounds/lighter car might not have been enough to close the gap. Further, with no safety-car, there is the chance that Vettel would not have made his clumsy error and hence have the potential to finish a little higher than P10.
Nonetheless, these are moot points as (1) reliability and safety-cars are variables that need to be considered in motorsport, and (2) we will be back at the Red Bull Ring in Austria for part 2 of the doubleheader. Given all the information from this weekend, I suspect the teams will be better prepared for the challenges and are likely to see a more ‘normal’ race.
Key Takeaways for Next Weekend?
Mercedes appear even quicker than they did in pre-season testing with Red Bull further behind than it seemed. Ferrari, on the other hand, is closer to the mid-field than the frontrunners and have a lot of work to do — especially given they are losing between 0.7 to 0.8 seconds on the straights. Racing Point and McLaren are both looking like they have strong packages. Splitting the two is like splitting hairs. If Ferrari continues to struggle, more podiums are up for grabs.
Red Bull’s double DNF will prove costly in the constructors’ championship, made worse by the shortened season and each point carrying more weight. This is crucial to the driver’s championship as well, with Bottas capturing a 13 point lead over Hamilton.
It will be interesting to see how the teams tackle round 2 in Austria again. Will reliability issues rear its head again? Will Red Bull get their revenge? How fruitful will Ferrari’s upgrades be? Can Sebastian Vettel put in a redeeming performance? There is still lots to play for in the championship.
In any case, it is great to be back racing. See you soon.
^Data sourced from FIA
^^Credit to Ergast Developer API for assistance with some data collection.
