Post-Race Analysis: Bahrain 2021 — Could This Be Max’s Year?

Source: FIA

It wouldn’t be Formula 1 without a bit of controversy. Just as Max Verstappen looked poised to take his first victory of the year, he went too wide at Turn 4 and instructed to give the position back to Lewis Hamilton. He would later discover he didn’t just hand back the position, but the win as well.

Was it all down to this one incident or something more? Let’s jump straight into it.

Figure 1: 2021 Bahrain GP Lap Chart

It Was More Than Just Track Limits

But first, we need to talk about track limits…sorry.

Fast forward not even a few hours after the race and the F1 community is divided on whether Verstappen was robbed. This isn’t the first time there have been inconsistencies around whether a driver has ‘gained a lasting advantage’.

It seems clear that Verstappen went off-track in his attempt to overtake Hamilton. The contention lies with the fact that Hamilton had breached track limits at Turn 4 almost 30 times during the Grand Prix. If I had been cosplaying as Hamilton in my PS4 copy of F1 2020, I’d have been disqualified. So why is this not the case in real life?

It was confirmed post-race that track limit infringements would not be enforced at Turn 4 during the race. The only caveat being that the driver cannot gain a lasting advantage. And herein lies the debate. Given Hamilton’s winning margin was only 0.7 seconds, it is conceivable to think that Hamilton’s track limit liberties were what tipped the scales in his favour.

“They wouldn’t be out there if there wasn’t time to be gained” — Martin Brundle

Be that as it may, perhaps this situation could have been avoided had it not been for a potential strategy error from Red Bull.

Strategic Warfare

Figure 2: Lap Delta Relative to Hamilton

Verstappen was strong out of the gates despite an issue with his differential. To counter the charging Red Bull, Mercedes opted for the undercut pit strategy on Lap 13.

Surprisingly, Red Bull kept Verstappen out until Lap 17 before pitting him for new tyres. Looking at Figure 2 above highlights how costly this was from a lap time perspective. Between Laps 13 to 17, Hamilton was able to gain almost 8 seconds on Verstappen. Nowhere else in the Grand Prix did Verstappen lose more than 1 second a lap to Hamilton.

Figure 3: Gap to Hamilton

This window was crucial for the Grand Prix. Had Red Bull responded to the undercut in the next lap, it is likely the damage from Hamilton would have been limited to approximately 3.5 seconds. It took Verstappen almost 10 laps (between laps 18 to 28) to recover 5 seconds shown in Figure 3 above. Given this, the 1.5-second saving could have been pivotal.

However, it is important to remember that Verstappen would not have the later stage tyre advantage under this scenario. In any case, it would have still been a tight race.

Figure 4: Smoothed Lap Times Compared

Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.

Putting aside the potential strategic blunder, Verstappen delivered a phenomenal drive to keep himself in contention. Figure 4 highlights just how aggressive Verstappen was in the last stint in his bid to close the gap to Hamilton. However, it was very much a do or die situation.

Referencing back to Figure 2, Verstappen spent several laps taking time out of Hamilton — but also burning out his tyres. His late-stage push meant that he had one shot, one opportunity, to win the Grand Prix. Unfortunately, it all came undone by the slimmest of margins.

All that being said, Hamilton once again demonstrated why he is a 7x World Champion. For him, it was a matter of limiting mistakes. And he did just that.

How the Mid-Field is Shaking Up

Figure 5: Gap to Norris

McLaren capitalised on an out of position Sergio Perez with both drivers bringing home a large points haul. Lando Norris deserves special credit with a P4 finish. His esteemed teammate and 7x race winner Daniel Riccardo was tipped to lead the teammate battle from the get-go. But Norris had the measure of Ricciardo, by both overtaking him and pulling a 20-second gap by the end of the race as shown in Figure 5. Figure 6 below also demonstrates how Norris had superior pace across all stints.

Figure 6: Smoothed Lap Times Compared

Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.

Ferrari has taken a large step forward from their woes in 2020 with a double points finish. Figure 6 above also highlights that they were able to compete on merit, with their race pace being in touch with McLaren. Carlos Sainz was another experienced driver that was outdone by their younger counterpart.

However, I would be cautious as to put the nails in the coffins of either Ricciardo or Sainz, as both drivers would need some races to get adjusted to their new teams. The same can be said for Fernando Alonso in Alpine and Sebastian Vettel in Aston Martin — albeit both having weekends to forget.

Both AlphaTauri and Aston Martin were surprises for different reasons. After a strong 2020 campaign, Aston Martin (formerly Racing Point) have not come out of the gates strong, with Lance Stroll collecting a single point and Vettel languishing down the order.

AlphaTauri is showing tremendous potential with Yuki Tsunoda claiming points on debut and showing pace similar to Ferrari and Mclaren. An honourable mention also goes to Pierre Gasly who qualified in P5 but suffered from front wing damage that ended his race.

Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix

“Anything happens in Grand Prix racing, and it usually does” — Murray Walker

A painful first race for Verstappen? Absolutely. But the Dutchman looked resolute. He and the Red Bull team didn’t give the demeanour of a team that missed out on their only chance to win this season. Instead, they looked confident — that they can take the fight to Mercedes this year. And here’s hoping they do just that.

And what of the rest of the field? Whilst there were some winners and losers in Sunday’s contest, the rest of the field is very tight and unpredictable — exactly what we want to see.

Who will fare best when we head to Imola? It is early days and anything can happen. I can’t wait.

Thanks for reading and I’d love to hear your thoughts.