Taking the Hard Road - Azerbaijan 2022
Source: FIA
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix has had its fair share of entertaining races since its debut on the F1 calendar in 2017. However, this year’s race was an exception to the rule with few people uttering the famous by-line of “well done Baku”. The race lost its gleam as both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc ground to a halt after succumbing to mechanical issues that forced their retirement from the race. This left both Red Bulls unencumbered as they cruised their way to another 1-2 finish for the season. While the action at the front may have fizzled away, there was still plenty going on in the midfield battle. Let’s get straight into it.
Not taking the easy route
Chart 1: Race Story - Cumulative Delta Plot
There were some great performances in the midfield this Sunday with some standing out more than others due to the unusual circumstances in which the results were delivered. Chart 1 above highlights the interesting battle between Lewis Hamilton, Pierre Gasly, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, all of whom overcame different challenges to see the chequered flag.
Let’s start with Hamilton. The seven-time champion lined up on the grid in P7 and two places behind his teammate, George Russell, with Gasly separating the duo. Gasly would continue to be the wedge between the pair until the onset of the first virtual safety car - summoned as a result of Sainz losing drive in the escape road past turn 4. All drivers, including the trailing Vettel, pulled into the pits to switch for a set of hard tyres and benefit from their peers lapping the circuit at a slower pace. However, in the commotion, Hamilton lost his position to Vettel, putting him on the back foot and adding another obstacle between himself and his teammate.
Chart 2: Pit Stop Gain/Loss
Chart 2 above provides attribution of how the pitstop favoured Vettel over Hamilton. Coming into the pits, the German was trailing his long-time rival by about half a second (which would equate to a couple of car lengths when travelling at the low speeds required in the pitlane). The Aston Martin pit crew was able to get the tyre change done faster than Mercedes by over one second, giving Vettel the opportunity to get the jump on Hamilton. Vettel was then able to open up the gap to almost one second by the time the duo resumed green flag racing. This incremental setback would go on to compound into a larger headache throughout the race.
Coming back to Chart 1 and we can see how Hamilton gets held up behind Esteban Ocon until lap 18. Hamilton is assisted when Vettel misjudged his braking point and had to take to the escape road in his battle with Ocon - providing Hamilton with a free position. This takes us to Vettel’s interesting race situation. Normally a mistake such as his would significantly hamper a driver’s chances of finishing in the points with that calibre of car. But Vettel was able to execute a remarkable half-spin to rejoin the road almost immediately after the fact, going on to only lose about 6 seconds in overall race time and two positions.
Turning back to Hamilton and the Briton would be the first of the pack of four to clear the traffic ahead - for the meantime at least. Driving in clean air would provide the opportunity to close the gap to Gasly who was stuck behind Ricciardo until lap 21 - who was forced to hold his position as a result of McLaren’s team orders. This provided Gasly with the window to overtake the Australian and come into clean air of his own and maintain the gap to Hamilton. Vettel was next to clear the traffic of Ocon by lap 25 and Hamilton cleared Ricciardo by lap 26. All drivers were lapping at a similar pace with Hamilton closing in on Gasly.
Chart 3: Lap Times Compared: Hamilton vs. Gasly vs. Vettel vs. Alonso
Approaching lap 33 and there was the second virtual safety car - this time instigated by another Ferrari power unit failure for the Haas of Kevin Magnussen. With a healthy gap to the drivers behind - as shown in Chart 1 prior - Hamilton was able to make the most of a cheaper pitstop and come back to attack Gasly with fresh tyres. Such a choice is always easier for the trailing team as they have nothing to lose - if the strategy doesn’t work they finish where they would have anyway. But the leading car faces a greater conundrum: do they pit and risk their rival staying out or do they stay out while the rival pits and become vulnerable to an overtake. The downside in both situations is losing position although the former realises the loss immediately while the latter is a potential loss for later in the race. As a result, AlphaTauri backed track position rather than better pace as their path to a better race finish. But as Chart 3 above shows, the cost in relative pace for Gasly was a large one, with Hamilton lapping about one second a lap faster on the fresher rubber. And as Chart 1 earlier shows, the Briton would go on to claim the P4 from Gasly by lap 42. Hindsight would clearly favour pitting under the VSC as the favourable strategy. However, Gasly’s ability to keep Hamilton at bay for the majority of the race - particularly the first stint - should have provided enough confidence to back themselves on pace.
Aston Martin was another team that opted to stay out. With Ricciardo ahead needing to take his compulsory pitstop and Vettel not having the pit window to his rivals, the decision to stay out was sensible and understandable - especially knowing that Alonso was in a similar position. Yuki Tsunoda needing to come into the pits to duct tape a defective DRS would provide Vettel with another position. As a result, Vettel’s main task from here was to see the tyres to the end and manage the pace relative to those behind - a task which he completed successfully to finish in P6.
And what of Alonso? Chart 3 also draws intrigue to Alpine’s strange strategy decision to extend Alonso’s first stint on the medium tyre. While the Alpine had a much better initial phase and degradation profile compared to that of Hamilton, Vettel and Gasly, the latter phase gave all that performance back. The crossover for the medium/hard tyre occurred at around lap 13, but Alpine kept Alonso out for another 5 laps by which time he was already losing out considerably to his rivals ahead. To make matters worse, the Alpine’s pace profile on the hard tyre was not much better than that of Vettel, despite changing tyres 9 laps later. In the end, Alonso’s battle would be with Ricciardo from behind as opposed to Vettel in front - making Alonso’s race harder than it needed to be.
With the exception of finishing one place higher/one place lower, Hamilton, Gasly, Vettel and Alonso all finished in reasonable positions given the pace of the car. Of course, all these drivers were helped by the double retirement from Ferrari. Be that as it may, these four drivers did well to deliver their results given their own unique challenges for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
With another race marred by issues, can Ferrari stem the bleeding and execute a course correction in Canada this weekend? With tight turnaround time and a long haul to the North American continent, the team will be hard-pressed to find a quick fix to their power unit solutions for a power-hungry track. Will Red Bull stretch their lead in both championships thanks to their low drag concept? And will Mercedes’ pace pendulum bring them closer to the front or the midfield as the team continues to combat porpoising issues? Can Vettel and Gasly build some momentum for their teams or will the likes of McLaren and Alfa Romeo bounce back to claim more points? There’s still plenty to keep an eye out for as we approach round 9 of the 2022 season. I’ll see you for the next one in only a few days’ time.
