Alonso Wreaks Havoc - Monaco 2022
Source: FIA
Formula One’s visit to the streets of Monte Carlo is usually met with the expectation of a thrilling qualifying followed by a processional race. However, the onset of rain brought about an atmosphere of angst as a wet Monaco Grand Prix takes the challenge of survival to another level. It also introduces another layer of jeopardy for the strategy team to navigate. And while the Red Bull and Ferrari battle gave a perfect case study into the do’s and do not’s of race strategy (How Ferrari handed easy Monaco victory to Red Bull – data analysis - Motor Sport Magazine), Fernando Alonso gave a demonstration of how his actions can choose the destiny of others. Let’s jump straight into it.
Alonso Creates His Own Grand Prix
Chart 1 - Gap to Ocon
After a delayed start, the race got underway behind the safety car. In no time at all, Ferrari and Red Bull were in their own race at the front, while Lando Norris settled in for his duel with George Russell. Chart 1 shows a processional profile between the two British drivers for the early part of the race. However, the actions of Pierre Gasly and Sebastien Vettel meant there was a lot to be watching toward the rear of the field. This is because both drivers were among the earliest to pit for the intermediate tyre while the majority of the field endured on the extreme wets. This would serve as crucial data points for executing the best race strategy.
Gasly was able to make haste quickly while in clean air, taking only 9 or so laps to get back on the rear of Daniel Ricciardo in the Mclaren. It was an almost similar story for Vettel, although the German gave up a better track position to execute the strategy. The clean air worked wonders, however, the characteristics of the tight circuit were impossible to avoid entirely as Vettel was stuck behind a slow-moving Ricciardo.
These details presented McLaren and Mercedes with the dilemma of navigating when to be on what tyre. Chart 1 clearing demonstrates the pace advantage that both Vettel and Gasly had while also showcasing that this pace advantage is only good in clean air. The peril of getting stuck behind a slow-moving car was genuine - as later evidenced by both Gasly, Vettel and even Lewis Hamilton. With Sergio Perez taking the plunge at the end of lap 16 and benefitting nicely, Norris also came into the pits to replicate similar success.
Chart 2 - Pitstop Analysis: Russell vs Norris
But the McLaren driver was not able to replicate the Red Bull strategy as Norris’ two-stop was too costly compared to Russell’s one-stop. Norris didn’t gain enough time in the intermediate tyre phase to compensate for the added time in the pits as shown in the green bar in Chart 2. As a result of this, Russell was able to jump Norris for track position and be in a position to command the pace of the race from there. Ultimately Russell was able to do what Carlos Sainz could not - albeit also impacted by other factors. Having now transitioned to the slick tyre phase of the Grand Prix and it being unlikely to need to stop again, Russell was in a commanding position to beat Norris - aided by the characteristics of the difficult to overtake circuit.
Chart 3 - Lap Times Compared: Russell vs Norris vs Alonso
While Alonso was within proximity to the two British drivers for the first half of the race, he was never close enough to pose a threat. The race hit a reset with the red flag falling following the aftermath of Mick Schumacher’s dramatic crash. This presented an alternate opportunity for Alonso to influence the outcome of the race. Having switched to the medium tyre, Alpine was hoping to consolidate P7 against the faster Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton. But it was still a long way to go until the end of the Grand Prix and so Alonso was required to deploy some extreme tyre saving in order to avoid needing another pitstop. As Chart 3 shows, Alonso was at times lapping up to 3 seconds a lap slower than Norris. The consequence of this, alongside the characteristics of Monaco, was that all the drivers behind the Spainaird were adversely impacted as shown in Chart 1 by the opening of a massive gap between Norris/Russell and Alonso. This provided Norris enough of a buffer to pit for a fresh set of medium tyres and chase down Russell. Clean air was on Norris's side and the Mclaren driver was able to close up to the back of Russell who was trying to make it to the end with an old set of medium tyres. While clean air was Norris’ friend, time was not and as a result, he was not able to mount a challenge for position against Russell.
Chart 4 - Qualifying Performance Breakdown
It was not such a great race for Ricciardo as he laments another out of the points finish made worse by his teammate’s excellent performance and run of form. Ricciardo’s Sunday woes were all but guaranteed after his less than stellar showing during qualifying on Saturday. As Chart 4 points out, Ricciardo had a one-second gap to his McLaren’s “ideal” lap (based on best sector times). While part of this is driven by the track evolution that benefitted Norris’s Q3 runs, the bigger issue lies in why Ricciardo is not joining Q3 alongside his teammate? And as the bars show, Ricciardo’s lack of speed is across all sectors of the track. Such a qualifying performance carries an even greater penalty when in Monaco. Ricciardo’s 2022 season is starting to rhyme with 2021 and it is unlikely that McLaren will have much patience for it. The Australian needs to turn things around and find the form of his Red Bull and even Renault days.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
A week’s break and F1 will be back in the fast and perilous streets of Baku. Another street circuit, but one that poses a very unique challenge. The tight and twisty sector 2 combined with super-fast sector 3 will pose another challenge in nailing the setup. Current form would put the advantage with Red Bull for their low drag and top speed prowess. But has Ferrari taken enough of a step in recent development to mount a challenge? In any case, Ferrari’s top priority lies with steadying the ship and curtailing any further negative momentum. And how will the rest of the field fair? Can Mercedes continue their steps back toward the front runners or will McLaren be able to cause headaches? The battle in the rest of the midfield remains tight. The season is long and there is still much to play for. Catch you in the next one.
Reference Chart - Tyre Strategy Summary
