F1 Post-Race Data Analysis: Belgium 2021 — A Reminder That Qualifying is Key

Source: FIA

2021 has had its strange moments but the scenes at this year’s Belgian Grand Prix take the cake. As mother nature unleashed her fury, there was little the organisers of the race could do beyond pray for a miracle. And while the prayer for a pause in the rain was not answered, there was a different kind of silent prayer that was answered. Safety.

Spa Francorchamps is a biblical circuit, but it is also a dangerous one. In 2019, a catastrophic accident claimed the life of the young and promising Anthoine Hubert. Earlier this year, another accident seriously injured Jack Aitken. And even this weekend, an accident during the W-series race saw a multi-car crash resulting in hospitalisations. Hell, even Lando Norris had a heart-stopping crash at Eau Rouge during qualifying. The track is no stranger to risk and while the decisions made on Sunday may have left many feeling disappointed, they most certainly ensured that there wasn’t another serious incident to add to the list.

Now while the race had a safe outcome, the classification outcome certainly raised some controversy. For better or for worse the decisions of the race director and the FIA made an effort to satisfy the technical definition of a ‘racing event’ to appease the competing requirements of a multitude of stakeholders. The conclusion of this was a result that was largely similar to the qualifying classification and the awarding of half-points.

Is it right that points were handed out for what was effectively a qualifying event wrapped up by a few glorified formation laps? In this regard, I honestly don't know. On one hand, it seems clear that it would be wrong to award full points when the full race was not completed. Yet, on the other hand, handing out no points would effectively nullify the penalities that Valtteri Bottas and Lance Stroll suffered as a result of their indiscretions at the Hungarian Grand Prix. But should decisions around the provisioning of points be dictated by who wins or loses based on penalties? Absolutely not. But it does highlight that there are winners and losers when it comes to things like this.

And ultimately, this is what gets to the heart of the controversy. Whether the driver/team of your allegiance profited from this decision or not, the common sense is that it's an arbitrary determinant in something that shouldn’t be that arbitrary. The Formula 1 World Championship is a test of many things but ultimately it is a test of skill and not a test of arbitration. The trouble though is, any decision would likely have seen a similar level of controversy. The rain simply forced an incident where little could be done to arrive at a satisfactory conclusion. So while we don’t award points for qualifying, that was the outcome at this Grand Prix. In the same way that Formula 1 has adjusted to a global pandemic, it must also learn to adjust to this. There may not be a clean resolution, but it is the one we have to live with. As they say, it is what it is.

And now to address the elephant of the room. As a data journalist that analyses races, where does this leave me? A bit of pickle. However, the race resulted was predicated on qualifying. And there is data from there. Let’s take a brief look.

It’s All About Right Place at the Right Time

While the rain may not have ended qualifying before it started, it did have a massive impact on performance and the ultimate order for the grid. Environmental factors such as the rain and track evolution were the dominant factors of consideration. The track was improving at a rate of knots. So much so, that a driver’s position on the same lap could have a meaningful impact on their performance versus their peers.

Figure 1: Track Evolution of Qualifying — Belgian Grand Prix

Figure 1 assesses the improvement in lap times as qualifying was completed. The three sessions of qualifying are separated and colour-coded. The standout element of the chart is the rate of improvement in lap times signified by the steep curves. Even in Q3, lap times were almost 2 seconds faster from the start of the session to the end of the session. This was despite the track being much wetter than the end of Q2 after there was another downpour of rain.

Figure 2: Track Evolution of Qualifying — Austrian Grand Prix

Figure 2 conducts the same analysis at another track during dry conditions earlier in the year. The curves here are upward sloping or relatively flat, indicating that environmental factors such as track evolution were not so significant in influencing the outcome and instead was determined by car performance and driver skills — as intended. This degree of stability (or at least lesser impact of environmental factors) is more conducive to conducting meaningful data analysis.

However, it is important to call out that while rain and track evolution were the dominant factors, they weren’t the only ones. Driver skills were still tested as to finish first you must first finish. These conditions were treacherous, and only the best driver that is both willing and able to dance on the knife’s edge of risk and return can make the most of themselves, the car and the conditions. Those who get that even marginally wrong suffer the consequences as Lando Norris, unfortunately, crashed out of qualifying where his performance was second to none. Fortunes came for the Briton by way of good health. The strategy team were also critical. Understanding the environmental factors and placing the car in the perfect window to maximise tyres, weather and traffic is an art form. Those who can optimise this equation reap the rewards while those who fail fall short.

George Russell and the Williams Racing team were exemplars of these facets. The successful execution of these factors is what allowed a driver, with one of the worst cars on the grid, to qualify on the front row and ultimately secure a maiden podium. Controversy may have ensued from the race, but nothing can detract from that stellar performance.

To highlight the scale of Russell’s outperformance, let’s take a look at the usual set of qualifying charts.

Figure 3: Winners and Losers of Qualifying

Figure 3 showcases the likely changes in qualifying position, had all drivers managed to achieve the perfect lap — the lap based on their own best sector times. It’s worth noting that the reemergence of rain after Q2 means the best sector times occurred in earlier sessions — hence the divergence of actual qualifying times against perfect lap times for the top 10. It’s for this reason why it is difficult to ascertain what the pecking order would have been in this situation. With that being said, and accepting the large caveats of this analysis, Figure 3 above highlights that Russell could have potentially lost 6 places had things not played out as they did.

Figure 4: Qualifying Analysis — Best Sector Times

Figure 4 provides another lens for perspective. While the same caveats are still in play, Figure 4 illustrates some of the performance differences amongst the drivers. It’s clear to see that most of Norris’ advantage came through Sector 2 as all drivers had a substantial gap to the Briton in this part of the track. Most drivers, besides the two Red Bulls, had an advantage in the first sector while only Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton were able to claw back time in Sector 3. In any case, Figure 4 shows another mixed grid albeit with Russell in P8 rather than P2, consistent with Figure 3. Yet, for the avoidance of doubt, the caveats in play cannot be understated. It is hard to know how the more ‘standard’ situation played out. As is usually the case, it’s often better to defer to reality rather than assumptions.

In any case, it is clear, while Russell played his part, he was a big winner of the weekend’s events.

Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix

It’s part 2 of the tripleheader as Formula 1 heads to Zandvoort. The championship fight at the front has closed to just 3 points and remains incredibly competitive. Yet there are still many unanswered questions. Given the unfortunate outcomes for Verstappen in Britain and Hungary, what is the real performance differential between the Mercedes and Red Bull? Which car has the peak performance? Have the Mercedes upgrades made the difference? And how will the fight between McLaren and Ferrari play out? This and so much more awaits us in less than a week.

Let’s hope for a few more than two laps next time. See you soon.

Rest in peace Anthoine Hubert ❤