F1 Post-Race Data Analysis: Netherlands 2021 — Verstappen Leaves Mercedes in the (Orange) Dust
Source: FIA
With great hype comes great responsibility. A paraphrasing of Spiderman’s ‘Uncle Ben’ yet a perfect representation of the immense anticipation surrounding the Dutch Grand Prix. And if the anticipation wasn’t as palpable as the orange fog from the grandstands, then the pressure to deliver a home victory certainly was. Mercedes threw everything and the kitchen sink at Max Verstappen. However, the Dutchman would prove impervious as he delivered a crowd-pleasing drive to the top step of the podium and incidently, the championship table.
After 5 weeks without proper racing, let’s get straight into it.
Verstappen Triumph’s Over The Mercedes Triple Threat
Max Verstappen may have had pole position but he was on his own in his fight against the two Mercedes. Sergio Perez had another dreadful qualifying session that saw him end Saturday in P16. Changes to the Mexican’s power unit saw him further out of position by starting from the pitlane. It was a less than ideal hand but it was the one that was dealt to Verstappen and Red Bull.
That being said, Zandvoort is a tight, twisty and narrow track that makes overtaking difficult. This combined with a slight pace advantage served as a saving grace for the hometown hero.
Figure 1 — Gap to Verstappen
And so the race began. It was a clean getaway for most involved and already Verstappen had opened up a sizeable gap to arch-rival Lewis Hamilton by the end of the first lap as shown in Figure 1 above. From here the gap continued to build and it was looking like Verstappen would cruise to victory. And while it appeared that Hamilton and Mercedes didn’t have the raw pace, they could still rely on strategy.
Figure 1 showcases Hamilton’s first undercut attempt. And while Hamilton was unable to overtake, it was crucial for closing the gap and forcing Verstappen’s hand. Would Red Bull go long and manage a one-stop or would they react to Hamilton and commit to a two-stop? History would have it that Red Bull opted for the 2nd choice which was to respond to Hamilton’s jousting. This opened the door for part two of the triple-threat with Valtteri Bottas running interference.
Bottas took the opposite strategy to Hamilton by committing to a one-stop. With both Verstappen and Hamilton already stopping, Bottas became the de-facto leader. Now it was Bottas who would benefit from the track characteristics of Zandvoort, as Verstappen would need to overtake him swiftly if he had any hope of winning the Grand Prix. Figure 1 shows how Bottas quickly fell into the clutches of the Dutchman from laps 22 to 30. A mistake from the Finnish driver meant that he was only able to hold up Verstappen for one lap before relinquishing the lead.
This was a pivotal moment, as Hamilton’s gap to Verstappen came within one second. Yet Verstappen was able to hold on and live to fight another day. If Bottas had managed to hold up Verstappen for even one more lap it could have completely changed the course of the race.
Figure 2 — Battle of the Tyre Compounds: Verstappen Vs. Hamilton
But it wasn’t over yet. Verstappen still had to survive the second undercut attempt from Mercedes. Mercedes once again opted for a relatively early stop for Hamilton on lap 39 of a 72 lap race. This meant that Hamilton’s stint second stint was shorter than his first, despite having using a harder compound of tyre as indicated in Figure 2 above. Why do this?
Bottas had already shown that a soft tyre can last at least 31 laps. By pitting Hamilton when they did, it would leave Red Bull in the uncomfortable position of having to determine whether to risk doing a long final stint on the soft tyre, or opt for the hard tyre and confidently make it to the end of the race. And to top it off, Hamilton opted for the medium compound for his 3rd stint — in the middle of Red Bull’s two choices. This meant that if Red Bull picked the:
Soft tyre — that Hamilton would likely have the tyre advantage toward the end of the race and;
Hard tyre — that Hamilton would likely have the tyre advantage earlier in the third stint.
Red Bull had to decide quickly, as any lengthening the second stint would give Hamilton more laps where he had the better tyre compound. This would then increase the probability of a successful undercut. Ultimately, Red Bull respond on the next lap and opt for the hard tyre. They survive the undercut attempt handsomely as shown in Figure 1 meaning that was left to do was survive the tyre compound disadvantage till the end of the race.
Figure 3 — Lap Times Compared: Verstappen vs. Hamilton
Figure 3 illustrates how little difference there was in race pace between Verstappen and Hamilton for the entire race. However, an important detail is the difference in trend pace following the second round of pitstops. While Hamilton did have a pace advantage on the medium tyre versus Verstappen on the hard, it was relatively minor and short-lived. Whether it was Verstappen extracting exceptional performance from the hard tyre or Hamilton struggling with the medium, either way the end effect was that Verstappen was able to hold onto his advantage with little threat.
As a result all Hamilton would have to concede the race win and opt for fastest lap as the consolation prize — despite a cheeky headache due to his teammate, Bottas, prematurely and ‘accidently’ clinching fastest lap beforehand.
Did Mercedes Get The Strategy Wrong? A Deeper Look
Figure 4 — Analysis of Hamilton’s First Undercut Attempt
Hamilton’s gap to Verstappen prior to the first stop was roughly 3.6 seconds as shown in Figure 4 above. Typically speaking, a 2 second gap is roughly appropriate for considering an undercut attempt on a rival driver. With that in mind, the undercut attempt was a tall order albeit more reasonable remembering that Mercedes still had Bottas as a strategic lever. While Hamilton wasn’t aided by a slow pitstop, the gap was simply too large to overcome as the Briton’s outlap wasn’t enough to overcome the initial gap. So how about the second stop?
Figure 5 — Analysis of Hamilton’s Second Undercut Attempt
Figure 5 does the same analysis on Hamilton’s second stop. Here the initial gap is closer to the desired 2 second mark. However, even though the pitstop was more competitive, the outlap from Hamilton was actually slower than Verstappen despite the better tyre! This comes down to the fact that Hamilton rejoined the track amongst traffic and lost time as a result. Verstappen got to enjoy clean air and remained unchallenged. As such, the major threat from the Mercedes has subsided and Verstappen could leverage the track characteristics to then comfortably take the chequered flag.
Figure 6 — Pit Window Analysis
Did Mercedes have a better pit window? Figure 6 would say otherwise as Hamilton’s pitstops were both close to their peak hypothesised positions. The case can be made that Hamilton was one lap too late on the first stop. However, this would likely fall within the margin of error and is not likely to have materially altered the outcome.
Verstappen was simply too good this weekend.
Gasly Does What Perez Could Not. Ferrari Get The Upperhand on McLaren
Figure 7 — Gap to Gasly
Pivoting to the fight in the midfield and it was Gasly who reigned supreme finishing the race in P4 — the minimum expected position for Perez. It was a tough race for Gasly, having to deliver a massive second stint on the medium tyre after being one of the earlier stoppers in the upper-midfield as seen in Figure 2. And while the Frenchman was exposed to a Ferrari overcut, Carlos Sainz didn’t have the pace and Charles Leclerc stayed out on the soft tyre for too long illustrated in Figure 7 above.
Figure 8 — Lap Times Compared: Gasly vs. Leclerc
Furthermore, Gasly was able to fend of Leclerc despite having older and softer tyres. Figure 8 reinforces this point as Gasly was able to match Leclerc’s pace toward the end of the race despite pushing hard while Leclerc was gunning for the overcut. The drive may have been relatively anonymous but definately one worthy of plaudits.
While Sainz’s performance was sub-par relative to his teammate, especially in the second stint, it was still enough to deliver Ferrari a sizeable points haul compared to their title rivals McLaren. Although Sainz owes some credit to ex-teammate Lando Norris, who helped in holding up the both the Alpine drivers. McLaren underperformed materially as only Norris was able to salvage points in the Grand Prix. Even then, it wasn’t without the help of his teammate who played rear gunner and tried to hold back the competitors for as long as possible. This did Daniel Ricciardo’s race no wonders, however the Australian’s pace was not anything special. Given that both drivers struggled this weekend, it is likely to be more of a car issue rather than a driver issue.
It was a decent performance from Alpine who were able to manifest another double points finish. Fernando Alonso was able to bring some late stage action with a last lap overtake of Sainz to finish in P6. Commiserations extend to Antonio Giovinazzi who was not able to convert a stellar qualifying into a good result as a tyre puncture forced an additional pitsotp that took the Italian driver out of contention. And while Perez delivered another overtaking bonanza, it’s a situation that he should never have been in given the poor qualifying result. Additionally the terrible lock-up on the hard tyre that forced an additional stop meant the driver lost a unnecessary 20 seconds which would have easily seen the Mexican finish P6. Results such as these could be title defining.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Next stop, Monza! The temple of speed will play host to track dynamics that are vastly different to Zandvoort. Will this mean Mercedes have the edge with their power unit strength? How will Red Bull fare? What can Ferrari manage on home turf? Can they keep McLaren at bay or will they bounce back? And will Gasly be able to perform some magic again? The answers to these questions are only days away.
See you on the other side!
