Vettel, Gasly and Albon Among the underrated - Belgium 2022
Source: FIA
Formula 1 returns after the summer break in the idyllic hills of Spa Francorchamps to see who would reign supreme in Belgium’s contest of speed. Red Bull’s record of top speed dominance in 2022 placed them in the perfect position to capitalise on their car’s top speed advantage against the circuits long straights. But instead of fighting from the front, Red Bull opted to mount a challenge from the rear of the field - after installed new engine componentry that incurred several grid penalties. Yet despite starting in P14, all expectations were still for a Verstappen victory. Such was the pace of the Verstappen + Red Bull + Belgium combination. And the result? It went exactly as expected - with Verstappen taking a dominant win, made easier by an out of action Charles Leclerc who continued to languish bad luck and poor choices. So what is there to step through with a race that was a cut and dry as this? The fight at the rear of the field with stellar performances from Sebastian Vettel, Pierre Gasly and Alexander Albon. Let’s just straight into it!
The Lower Midfield Gets Their Time in the Sun
Chart 1: Tyre Strategy Summary
It was a dramatic opening to the Belgian Grand Prix, with the new 2022 aero regulations working their magic once again as the entire grid scrapped for multiple positions across several corners. Amongst the mayhem, Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas were left worse for wear and were forced to retire from the race. These retirements brought out the safety car that accelerated Verstappen’s timeline in advancing to the front of the field. For the rest of the grid, the safety car presented another chance to kickstart their quest for a high points paying position.
Chart 2: Race Story - Cumulative Delta Plot
Looking at Chart 2 above and we can see that Sebastian Vettel was able to consolidate his early gains on lap 1 as he bolted away from his peers while chasing down Fernando Alonso. Vettel stayed hot on his heels until Alonso came into the pits to swap for a new set of boots. The German inherited the clean air and carried on - demonstrating a more favourable degradation profile on his medium tyres in the first stint. Not only was Vettel’s longevity better than Alonso, it was superior to that of most of the field, especially when compared to this weekend’s other two protaganists in Alexander Albon and Pierre Gasly - both of whom pitted on lap 10 for fresh rubber.
The fresh rubber gave these two drivers an advantage against Vettel, who was lapping at a slower pace on the older tyres. The result of this was that once Vettel had pitted, he had come out behind Albon as seen in Chart 2. Had Vettel pitted a few laps sooner and he may well have been able to re-join the race ahead of the Williams instead of behind. Though the upshot of Aston Martin’s strategy is that Vettel would have fresher tyres for later in the race. In any case, Vettel made short work of Albon before resuming his charge against the Alpine of Fernando Alonso - with the benefit of having a favourable tyre offset.
Chart 3: Trend Race Pace Compared - Focus on Vettel and Gasly
The benefits of Aston Martin’s strategy can be clearly seen in the second stint of Chart 3 above. While Vettel sacrificed pace between laps 11 to 14, he gained the benefit between laps 15 to 25 where he had much better pace compared to Alonso. Better yet, Vettel’s pace was superior to that of the other Alpine in Esteban Ocon - albeit with a smaller margin. Ocon was running a different race, having started from the rear of the field after taking engine penalties of his own. As a result, Ocon had the benefit of fresh componentry while on the same hard compound tyre as Vettel. Ocon’s pace was very stable, while Vettel’s began to deteriorate ever so slightly as the laps went on. Ocon blinked first and pitted on lap 32 while Vettel responded on the following lap.
Chart 4: Pitstop Gain/Loss - Ocon’s Undercut
In just one lap, Ocon is able to take out about 4 seconds of the gap to Vettel as shown in Chart 4 above. This placed him within striking distance of the German. With the tyre offset largely neutralised, Ocon having the top speed advantage as well as the slipstream and DRS, Vettel had few options left in his defence against the Frenchman. Not only was Ocon able to take on Vettel, but he was able to take on Gasly in the one manoeuvre at the end of the Kemmel straight - reminiscent of Mika Hakkinen on Michael Schumacher in 2000. From here Ocon was able to run away and close the gap to his teammate, Alonso, who was now taking his turn in displaying very impressive pace on the hard tyre for the final stint. Vettel stayed on Ocon’s tail, but never saw another opportunity to convert a higher position. In the end, P8 was the best that Aston Martin and Vettel could target. An impressive result nonetheless for the struggling team.
And while Gasly gave up ground to Vettel on the same lap as his duel with Ocon, he was still able to finish a very strong P9 having started from the pitlane. Gasly’s performance was an intriguing tale of two halves. The first involved repeated struggle with tyre degradation as shown in Chart 3 earlier - with the steeply upward sloping curves. But this changed after Gasly stopped for his 2nd set of medium tyres. Clean air was a helpful factor, as Chart 2 highlights the Frenchman’s offset to the rest of the pack. This was the opposite to what Gasly experienced in the first stint where he was stuck in the dirty air of the train in front. Ironically, these early degradation issues helped place Gasly in a position that go on to bear fruit later. Both Gasly and the AlphaTauri pit wall did a good job in pulling the trigger and extracting the pace when they needed to and taking a P9 finish as their prize.
But where does Albon land in all of this?
Chart 5: Trend Race Pace Compared - Focus on Albon
Albon showcased a terrific performance on Saturday to start the race in P6. The British-Thai driver had his work cut out for him, being surrounded by teams and drivers that had better all out pace than the Williams. But as Chart 2 would show, Albon held on and kept Daniel Ricciardo at bay. That is until lap 10 where Albon had to swap for a fresh set of tyres. Albon ran well in the clean air on the hard tyres - better than his first stint, as shown in Chart 5 above. He would run so well (at least compared to Ricciardo) that he would end up ahead of him again for the 2nd stint. And so the first Albon train began with more and more drivers starting to pull up to the rear of the British-Thai driver from lap 22 onwards. This would continue for a while, with Vettel and Ocon the only two drivers who had been able to cut through Albon. Interestingly enough, history would repeat itself, with Albon taking another pitstop into clean air that would later turn into another advantage against the rest of the midfield. This time, it was Lance Stroll who had the unlucky position of first carriage in the Albon train, while Ricciardo’s overcut actually put him even further back in the pack. The effects of the Albon train can be seen in the conversion of the trend pace curves in Chart 5 above. This would carry on until the end of the race, with Albon taking a well-deserved P10 and third points finish of the season. Albon did a sensational job of maximising the straight line speed of the William throughout sector 1 and minimising the damage through sector 2.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Formula’s 1’s next stop is Zandvoort, the home of the Dutchman, Max Verstappen. Redbull and Verstappen carry healthy momentum through an ever-expanding lead in the championship as well as the high of taking a commanding win over the competition despite an engine penalty. With Ferrari continuing to struggle and drop the ball, is there anything anyone can do to mount a challenge against Formula’s latest dominant duo? Can his teammate, Sergio Perez find some pace or will he continue to lag and play second fiddle to the reigning world champion? Will Mercedes continue to lag or will they take a step closer to the front of the field? And how will the Alpine/McLaren contest fare both on and off the track - with driver movements yet to be confirmed? The fight at the front may be fading but there are still things to watch out for in the rest of the season. Here’s still hoping for a miracle. See you in the next one.
