Norris Fights Alpine’s Two-Pronged Attack - Netherlands 2022
Source: FIA
After a weekend in the fast straights of Spa-Francorchamps, Formula 1 arrived at the sand dunes of Zandvoort for a change of pace and a track known more for its blind corners and extreme banking. Having lost ground to Alpine in the constructor’s championship, Zandvoort represented an opportunity for McLaren to claw some points back in the championship and generate some momentum. Why Zandvoort? The circuit’s characteristics play to the strengths of the McLaren - or rather it doesn’t play to its weaknesses being top-end speed. So how did the dust settle in this battle? Let’s jump straight into it.
You Can’t Hedge Your Bets With Only One Driver
Chart 1: Race Story - Cumulative Delta Plot
McLaren had the early advantage in the race thanks to a better qualifying than Alpine with Lando Norris in P7 trailed by Esteban Ocon in P12 and Fernando Alonso in P13. But this advantage disappeared quickly with Ocon climbing up to P9 by the end of the first lap. Clearing the early traffic was important for Ocon as it minimised the damage of getting bogged down in the dirty air of other cars, especially at a track where overtaking is difficult. This overshadowed Norris’ climb up to P6, before losing the position to George Russell a few laps later. The race then fell into its usual rhythm, with Lance Stroll in P8 and sandwiched between Norris and Ocon. Chart 1 above shows how the three drivers had decent pace, and were making haste compared to their teammates who were stuck in the traffic of Pierre Gasly’s AlphaTauri. Norris was the best of the three, with Ocon’s starting to drop off at a fast rate. During this time Alonso was able to clear Gasly and opted for a bold and early pitstop.
Chart 2: Tyre Strategy Summary
Alonso came into the pits at the end of lap 12 and swapped his soft tyres for a fresh set of the hard compound. At this time, both Norris and Ocon were about two-thirds of the way through their first stints. The profile of Alonso’s pace was similar to that of his teammate as shown in Chart 1 prior. So why did the Spaniard opt for such an early stop when he could have gone deeper into the race?
The answer lies in concerns over tyre degradation. With both cars out of sync, Alpine could afford to try different strategies for their drivers. As a result, Alpine committed to a bold strategy with Alonso and a more conventional approach with Ocon. Alonso’s strategy was predicated on extracting better relative pace on the hard tyre compared to the softer compounds while Ocon’s strategy followed the base case of many other drivers on the grid. If the gambit with Alonso works, then they’ve gained several positions and increased their points haul. If it doesn’t, then the situation is not too dissimilar to where they started. As for Ocon? Whether his strategy works or doesn’t work is less of a concern since his strategy was not too different to that used by Norris. So if Ocon’s strategy works, it will likely work for Norris too. If it doesn’t, then Norris would also be struggling. Putting it all together and the balance of probabilities sat in favour of the idea of pitting Alonso early. So how did things actually play out?
Chart 3: Pit Stop Gain/Loss
Chart 3 reveals that Alonso’s strategy was good enough to put him in front of his teammate. Alonso was able to gain approximately a 9-second advantage thanks to his switch to the hard tyre while Ocon extended on the soft. This took him from trailing his teammate by 4 seconds to beating his teammate by 4 seconds. The only downside to this is that Ocon would have a 6-lap tyre offset that could help him later in the race. However, as has already been discussed, Zandvoort is difficult to overtake and therefore track position is king. It’s also worth remembering that Alonso was on the hard tyre and should therefore not be too compromised by degradation and durability concerns.
Chart 4: Trend Race Pace Compared
Turning the attention back to Chart 1 and we can see that while Alonso had moved up the field, he was still behind both Stroll and Norris. Norris pitted on lap 17 and had a 5-lap tyre offset advantage compared to Alonso. This meant that Norris had both a tyre advantage and track position over Alonso. Chart 4 above reveals that Norris, Alonso and Ocon all had very comparable pace and degradation profiles on the hard tyre during the second stint of the race - maintaining the relative position of all drivers. Something needed to give if Alpine were hoping to overtake Norris.
Turns out, it was Yuki Tsunoda’s rear differential and subsequent virtual safety car that would be the answer to Alpine’s problems. Both Norris and Alonso took the opportunity to pit for the soft tyre while Alpine opted to keep Ocon out. Once again, Alpine looked to split the strategy to give themselves multiple options for navigating the race. Both Norris and Alonso were able to resume the race ahead of Stroll (see Chart 1 earlier), leaving one less challenge to overcome. Norris was now stuck between an Alpine sandwich and had to mount the challenge against Ocon ahead. But this is where a broken down Valtteri Bottas would force the deployment of the full course safety car that would bunch up the field. Once again, McLaren opted to pit Norris again for a fresh set of soft tyres. And once again Alpine decided to swap their approach to strategy by having Ocon pit for fresh tyres and leaving Alonso out for track position. The soft tyre, albeit used, meant that Alonso’s pace deficit to Norris was minimal compared to being on either the medium or hard. A gamble for sure, but they had hedged their bets with Ocon. Norris continued in the Alpine sandwich albeit this time with Alonso in front and Ocon behind.
The race resumed and the Alpine-McLaren battle approached its crescendo. But as Chart 4 reveals, Alonso’s pace was too much for either Norris or Ocon to overcome. The benefit of young soft tyres was not enough to compensate for older softs meaning that McLaren’s gamble to pit during both safety car periods left them worse for wear. McLaren’s strategic error was born out of Alpine’s double threat and the continued absence of Daniel Ricciardo. The outgoing McLaren driver’s impact was felt for what he didn’t achieve rather than what he did. And so, despite having the track and pace advantage, McLaren couldn’t overcome Alpine’s two-pronged attack.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Next up is Monza’s temple of speed but will it be the temple of Red Bull thanks to their low drag and super top speed advantage? Can Ferrari save face in front of the proud Tifosi and pull off a masterstroke? Where will Mercedes fall in the pecking order? And will McLaren pay the price of a missed opportunity in Zandvoort and lose more ground to Alpine in the constructor’s championship? Or can they repeat the miracle of last year and deliver an unexpected 1-2 finish? There are still storylines to follow as we approach the flyaway races of the 2022 season. See you in the next one.
