F1 Post-Race Analysis: Britain 2021 — For Leclerc It Was Close, But No Cigar
Source: FIA
Anticipation. A single word that summarises the atmosphere leading into the British Grand Prix weekend. Can Max Verstappen win in Lewis Hamilton’s stronghold of Silverstone? And if so, what would the championship lead become insurmountable? How will the sprint qualifying format affect things? And the question that has bubbled all season long: can this titanic battle exist without the iceberg of jeopardy?
And while the anticipation had become palpable, no one was prepared for the crescendo that would reverberate. And so let’s analyse some of the major moments of what will no doubt be one of the turning points in the 2021 season.
A Measured and Respectful Look at the Hamilton and Verstappen Incident
Data-driven insights have always been the focus of this publication. But it would be hard to cover this race without taking a look at the Lap 1 incident for (1) its impact on the race’s outcomes and (2) its impact on the season.
Firstly, it is immensely pleasing to see that Verstappen is healthy (hopefully mentally too). A 51G impact is immense and for a driver to walk away from that is a testament to the hard work of all the men and women involved in the advancement of safety. Secondly, this is racing and this was an accident (not intentional). Any abuse the drivers have received— in particular, Lewis Hamilton — is totally abhorrent and undeserved.
So onto the incident. Let’s walk through a few key details:
Hamilton was alongside Verstappen going into Copse corner. Both drivers deserve racing room.
Verstappen was ahead of Hamilton both pre-corner and mid-corner. As a result, Verstappen has more claim on the dominant line (but must give Hamilton reasonable space).
Hamilton misses the apex of the corner (the mistake) and understeers into the path of Verstappen who has committed to his line.
Contact happens that results in Verstappen’s retirement and damage to the safety structure of the tyre wall requiring a red flag.
Hamilton suffered a wheel rim failure that would ordinarily result in retirement. The red flag allowed for this damage to be addressed and for the Briton to continue racing.
The stewards handed a 10-second penalty to Hamilton and 2-penalty points on his license for the infringement.
So now the key questions:
Did Hamilton deserve the penalty?
In my opinion, yes.
In the words of Fernando Alonso, the defending driver “must always leave the space” for another driver on the track. This doesn’t mean conceding the position but giving the other driver at least a car width of space. The attacking driver is entitled to make an overtaking manoeuvre but must do so while maintaining control of his car and not in a manner that is reliant on the actions of the defending driver — the move must be done cleanly. Simply put, Verstappen left the required space, and Hamilton makes a mistake and missed the apex, thus no longer maintaining control of his car and makes contact.
Is the penalty fair?
I don’t know.
Determining whether an infringement has been committed is more binary than determining the appropriate punishment. The penalty system in the sport has always been opaque and marred with inconsistency. The controversy lies in the fact that despite receiving the 10-second penalty, Hamilton was still the victor of the race. But Hamilton overcoming the penalty is not his problem. He’s done the crime, he’s done the time. If the time is not commensurate with the crime, that’s the problem of the policing of the rules by the stewards.
It also needs to be called out that most high-speed contact between two drivers usually results in both cars retiring, or both suffering from compromising damage that acts as a natural penalty. It was extremely lucky that Hamilton didn’t retire immediately and was able to repair the damage during the red flag.
But is it fair that Hamilton wins despite his mistake causing a rival to crash out? While it may not feel right, penalties need to be based on the infringement and not the potential finishing order. Ultimately this is a function of luck (good luck for Hamilton with the red flag and bad luck for Verstappen to crash at a high-speed corner), the performance of the Mercedes and potentially poor stewarding.
Regardless, all of these point to a review of the rules, penalties and stewarding and not an attack on either Hamilton or Verstappen. It was hard racing and it was an accident. It happens.
Why is this relevant?
Because it was Charles Leclerc who had the lead coming out of Copse corner and would come so close to winning the Grand Prix! Here come the charts.
Leclerc’s Almost Miracle Drive
Figure 1: Gap to Leclerc
Ferrari themselves expected some struggles this weekend, yet here they were in the lead of the race. And while Leclerc’s performances during qualifying and sprint qualifying were impressive, few would have expected the Monegasque driver to challenge the Mercedes. Yet this is precisely what he did for 50 laps as shown in Figure 1 above.
Figure 2: Race Pace Compared — Medium Tyre
The Ferrari swung in its competitiveness throughout the season but it has rarely been the second fastest car in terms of race pace. Yet Figure 2 shows that Ferarri was a force to be reckoned with on the medium tyre. Leclerc had the measure of both the Mercedes despite nursing some engine issues as shown in Figure 1. With engine issues resolved, Leclerc was able to keep Hamilton out of DRS range. This was a crucial component to Leclerc’s success as would be supported by the experience of his teammate, Carlos Sainz, who lamented being stuck behind Daniel Ricciardo for almost the whole race.
Figure 3: Race Pace Compared — Hard Tyre
And as Hamilton pitted, he was forced to serve his 10-second penalty. This not only gave Leclerc some breathing room, but also the freedom to pit a few laps later and come out on track in the clean air. But things weren’t the same on the hard tyre as Figure 3 shows how Ferrari’s fortunes were turned on their head.
The Mercedes was a different beast on the hard tyre. Hamilton was able to gain hand over fist and only had his teammate, Valtteri Bottas between himself and the scarlet car. And with team orders, it may as well have been a clear track, as Bottas made sure to not hold up the Briton. This might have been a different story had Lando Norris not suffered from a slow pitstop that lost him a position to Bottas.
Figure 4: Leclerc vs Tyre Progression
Figure 4 summarises Leclerc’s tale of two halves. The stint of the medium was often the best of the field or at least very close. Though that experience changed drastically as he switched to the hard tyre where he was consistently slower than the best times being recorded on the hard tyre. Putting this together with Figure 1, it only became a matter of time before Hamilton would be challenging for the lead.
Figure 5: Lap Times Compared — Leclerc vs Mercedes
Could the shining star of Maranello have done any more? After nursing engine issues and nursing those tyres the way he did, it’s hard to argue there was anything left on the table. And while he may not have been a match for Hamilton, he certainly had the measure of Bottas and crucially, the measure of Norris — his main threat in the fight for the World Constructor’s Championship.
More Excitement in the Ferrari vs McLaren Battle
Figure 6: Lap Times Compared — Ferrari vs McLaren
Sainz was also very impressive in the other Ferarri. While he suffered for an error during the sprint qualifying race, he shows a redeeming performance through a long first stint and competitive race pace. He comfortably had the measure of Ricciardo but had his hard work undone due to a slow pitstop as shown in Figure 1. This would keep the Spaniard behind to suffer in the dirty air. Despite having fresher tyres, the power unit differential between the Mclaren and Ferrari meant that Sainz could never get in a position to mount an overtake. The artefact of this was so bad that it forced his performance to converge to Ricciardo’s pace as shown in Figure 6.
One Sainz’ pain is another Ricciardo’s glory as Ricciardo achieves his best finish of the season. The British Grand Prix was proof that a better qualifying position can translate to a better race outcome for the Australian. And while he defended well against Sainz, he failed to make significant inroads to closing the gap to his teammate Norris. Still work to be done, though a pleasing improvement.
Lando had another great weekend though a slow stop cost him his chance at a home podium. Figure 5 shows his pace was on par with Bottas, but after falling behind after pitstops, was unable to keep the momentum. The Mclaren can compete with a Mercedes suffering from dirty air, but not without it. As Silverstone has already shown, overtaking without a significant pace advantage is difficult. And with Ricciardo playing rear gunner, Norris could take a more conservative approach to finish comfortably in P4.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
The outcome of the British Grand Prix sees a seismic shift in the championship battle with Hamilton clawing back a massive 25 points, reducing the deficit to just 8 points in favour of Verstappen. The next round is in Hungary — a track that both Verstappen and Hamilton tend to perform well at. And while tensions are high and the gloves are off, here’s to hoping that the fight at the front is clean and that it’s pace, strategy and racecraft that determine the true outcome.
Silverstone was also crucial for the constructor’s championship, with Mercedes closing the gap dramatically. Will it be Sergio Perez or Valtteri Bottas that finds better form to deliver the bigger points haul for the team. Number 2 drivers will be key for any strategic battles.
Who will triumph between Ferrari and Mclaren? And who will be able to clinch more points in the lower midfield fight between AlphaTauri, Alpine and Aston Martin? Plenty to play for. Thanks for reading and I’ll see you all next time.
