F1 Post-Race Analysis: Austria 2021 — The Boy Wonder Does it Again
Source: FIA
Another race at the Red Bull Ring, another win for Max Verstappen. It was a dominant performance earning the Dutchman his first career grand slam and catapults him to a 32 point lead over his main title rival: Lewis Hamilton. And while the cheers of the Orange army were for Verstappen, all eyes were pinned on the orange McLaren of Lando Norris — earning his 2nd podium at the track.
And there was plenty of drama to be had in the midfield. Between Sergio Perez’s blunders, Ferrari’s big brain strategy, Daniel Ricciardo’s lift in form, Pierre Gasly’s overperformance on the two-stopper and a bittersweet points finish for Fernando Alonso; there was a lot to take note off. Without further ado, let’s jump straight into it.
Norris Delivers a Podium Based on True Pace
It was another stellar performance from the rising star: Lando Norris. But to properly appreciate his achievements in the race, one must first turn their attention to the qualifying session on Saturday.
Figure 1: Qualifying Analysis — Breakdown by Sector
Figure 1 breaks down the qualifying performances of the top 5 runners for this weekend. The first two rows of the grid are often ‘reserved’ for the likes of Red Bull or Mercedes, yet Norris broke the trend and placed his car in P2. What stands out is that it wasn’t luck that put Norris on the front row, it was the Briton extracting maximum performance.
Figure 1 reveals that Norris was the fastest in sector 1, moderately fast in sector 2 and second fastest in sector 3. Crucially it was faster than the other Red Bull of Sergio Perez. And while Norris was assisted by the tow in sector 1, he was hand over fist faster than Perez in the last two sectors of the lap. It was a mega job that set the scene for Sunday’s race.
Figure 2: Gap to Verstappen — A Tale of Two Races
Sunday had arrived and Norris was starting from P2 — based on performance and not shenanigans. And unlike last week, Norris avoids any tyre disadvantage by starting on the same medium compound as his main competitors.
The Briton has a clean getaway but gets into a precarious situation at Turn 4 with Perez. The Mexican tries to pull an eager move on the outside of a downhill off-camber corner and eventually runs out of road as Norris holds the racing line. And as Perez tumbled down the order, the Briton drove away with no compromise to the position. Or so he thought.
After an investigation by the race stewards, Norris’ stern defence earned him a 5-second time penalty to be served at the next pitstop. And as Figure 2 demonstrates, the penalty would be race defining.
Before the first pitstop (circa lap 29), Norris was ahead of the Mercedes of Valtteri Bottas. However, the service of the penalty meant that Norris came out behind the Finn. The gap between the two drivers remained within 5 seconds to the end of the race as Norris had the pace to match Bottas.
Figure 3: Lap Times Compared — Norris vs Bottas
Figure 3 showcases the pace differential between the two drivers. Other than the early stages of the first stint and a few laps of clearing traffic, both drivers were nip and tuck. Normally this would shine a light on Bottas’ strong performance and good defence of P2. But the defence was against a car that, while fast, is not a car that regularly contends for podiums. For this reason, the limelight falls on the boy wonder who was able to extract the race pace comparable to a car capable of podiums if not wins. And had the penalty not fallen on Norris, he would have held P2 fair and square — earning every plaudit under the sun.
Ferrari Get Strategy Right…Again!?
In a strange turn of form, Ferrari is making lots of sensible and big brain decisions when it comes to race strategy. And once again Saturday’s qualifying session forms the bedrock for the success of the Maranello outfit on Sunday.
The Ferrari duo of Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc qualified in P11 and P12 respectively. This was viewed as underperformance, especially when compared to the AlphaTauri drivers that qualified in P6 and P7 and Aston Martin drivers that qualified in P8 and P11. But both drivers were confident that they had optimised their strategy for the race despite not making it into Q3.
Why would anyone intentionally miss out on a Q3 appearance and a higher grid slot? Ferrari prioritised the tyre strategy over grid position. What does this mean? It means starting on the soft tyre (poor durability) would compromise race pace too greatly and force the unpopular 2-stop strategy.
Figure 4: Tyre Strategy Compared — Ferrari vs Midfield
And they were right. Figure 4 shows the tyre strategies deployed by key drivers in the midfield and where they finished according to the race. It’s worth noting that Sebastian Vettel’s classification of P17 is misrepresented as the German was on his way to P12 before getting taken out by a mistake from Kimi Raikkonen. Be that as it may, all drivers that made it into Q3 and started on the soft tyre ended up falling down the order. Gasly was the only driver that still placed in the top 10.
Meanwhile, both Ferrari drivers moved into the top 10, with a notable performance from Sainz. Sainz’s long stint paved the way for a fast second stint where he could maximise the grip advantage from the tyre due to a lower fuel load. This was instrumental in Sainz’s campaign to overtake Ricciardo and get within 10 seconds of Perez (as shown in Figure 2 earlier). Perez’s 10 seconds worth of penalties would ultimately promote Sainz to P5.
Leclerc’s race was not so straightforward.
By starting on the medium tyre, Leclerc had a slightly different task when compared to Sainz. While Sainz needed to be fast at the end of the race to make up places, Leclerc needed a more balanced race with overtaking throughout. But Perez falling into the midfield introduced a wrinkle for Ferrari’s strategy.
Figure 5: Overcut Analysis — Did Ferrari Get Greedy?
The dirty air of Perez’s car needed to be avoided at all costs and hence Ferrari tried to pull an overcut as shown in Figure 5. As Perez pitted on lap 32, the red line of Leclerc continued to improve — suggesting an overcut could be profitable. Ferrari pulled the trigger on lap 34, but Figure 5 shows that both drivers would be very close on track. And hindsight would show that Leclerc just missed out and suffer in the dirty air.
Figure 6: Lap Times Compared — Leclerc vs Perez vs Ricciardo
However, Leclerc made 2 overtaking attempts on Perez that would result in the Monegasque going into the gravel twice and subsequent damage. These same incidents are what slapped Perez with 10 seconds worth of penalties. These battles can be seen in the circled area of Figure 6. The scrapping resulted in higher volatility with lap times and damage that would, in turn, hamper Leclerc’s race pace from lap 50 onwards. The damage, the dirty air and tyre degradation ultimately meant that Leclerc couldn’t mount a bigger challenge, despite having the pace to challenge Ricciardo.
A return to Figure 2 shows Leclerc’s pain but also emphasizes Ferrari’s correct use of team orders. By swapping Sainz and Leclerc, Sainz was ultimately able to get to P5 and score more crucial points in their fight against McLaren in the constructor’s championship.
Despite All The Carnage, Alonso Was the Biggest Loser
Even though Alonso was able to finish claim a point by finishing P10, it was a bittersweet experience. Firstly because he had to overtake his favourite young driver for the final position but mainly because he had the potential for so much more. Why is this the case? Once again, we need to go back to the events of qualifying on Saturday.
Figure 7: Winners and Losers of Qualifying — Alonso’s Anguish
Figure 7 above highlights the consequences of the Q2 traffic fiasco. A bunching up of cars into turns 9 and 10 left Vettel in the unfortunate position of unintentionally impeding Alonso on his final fast run. Alonso had to abort his lap and settle for P14, despite having more pace. Figure 7 shows that Alonso would have qualified at least P8 or better if he was unimpeded. Had this been the case then Alonso would have had a completely different race and a high possibility for more points.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Alas, it is the end of the triple header. The next race is at the home of Formula 1 in Silverstone. A lot of pundits have called this out as a potential canary in the coal mine for the championship. This tarmac has been dominated by Mercedes, and if Red Bull can win here, it could have huge ramifications for the remainder of the season.
But let’s not forget, there’s still a long way to go. Reliability will be key, especially under such stringent limits on parts and operating under a cost cap.
Will Hamilton be able to bounce back after a P4 in Austria? Will Ricciardo find his feet in qualifying? Can Norris continue his run of form? Can Ferrari make it a hattrick for strategy? Can Perez help Red Bull get a coveted 1–2? And how will the scrap between AlphaTauri, Aston Martin and Alpine play out?
There are still plenty of stories to follow in this exciting season.
Time for some rest. See you all again soon!
