Red Bull Faultless as Ferrari Falter - Imola 2022
Source: FIA
After a dominant showing in Australia, Ferrari fever was running high in Imola as the Scuderia looked on form to deliver a victory in front of the Tifosi. But Red Bull returned serve, coming to Italy with a stronger package alongside two drivers who were hooked into the car. The onset of rain brought another element of jeopardy that put created the perfect storm to create a weekend to forget for the Scuderia. Just how did it go so wrong? Let’s dive into it.
Ferrari had 99 problems while Red Bull had none
Chart 1: Start Analysis
On a narrow and wet track, Charles Leclerc would have been looking to recreate his start from the sprint race the day prior. However, a wet grid slot on the sub-optimal side of the grid proved to be a handful as the Monegasque driver got bogged down and was very quickly under pressure from the second Red Bull of Sergio Perez. It only took Lando Norris about 200m (as shown in the speed trace of Chart 1) to carry greater speed than Leclerc and mount a challenge going into turn 1. The Briton had to brake later and make it through the wet chicane on a full tank of fuel on the inside but was able to keep it on track and ahead of the Ferrari.
This was something that was not shared by his teammate, Daniel Ricciardo, who took a little too much kerb and kicked out enough to rotate Carlos Sainz and take both into the gravel trap. Unfortunately for Sainz, he was going backwards and not carrying the momentum needed to keep skirting across without getting beach. And just like that, the Spaniard has his second retirement in a row - a painful loss of points. Ricciardo on the other hand continued though at the back of the field.
In the space of one chicane, Ferrari had lost one driver from the race while the other was dropped to P4 while the Red Bull’s rode 1 and 2 and were in the prime position to control the pace from the front.
Chart 2: Cumulative Delta Plot
As the safety car from the Sainz-Ricciardo incident pulled into the pits, the race resumed with Red Bull firmly in control. With the benefit of clean air and a rear gunner in Perez, Verstappen was able to dictate the pace and build a gap to the championship leader. And while Leclerc’s lap times were competitive with Perez, he wasn’t quick enough in the right places as the track characteristics mean that turn 1 is the only major overtaking opportunity. This, combined with the lack of DRS meant Perez managed to keep enough of a gap on the main straight to keep the position.
Not soon after the race fell into a lull. Ferrari didn’t have the necessary pace advantage to make a clean overtake and hence needed to do something on the strategy front. The good news for the Scuderia was that the transition from wet tyres to dry tyres offered a high-risk high reward opportunity to pull one over on your rivals. Though despite the carrot, Ferrari opted to take a wait and see approach in a similar vein to others.
Chart 3: Tyre Crossover
Ricciardo was the first to pit at the end of lap 16 and the start of 17. The Australian had nothing to lose after dropping to the back of the grid and could have been set to consolidate a massive advantage if the change in performance was extreme. The information could also be used to benefit Norris, as the pitwall would have all the detailed telemetry to understand the difference in what the tyres had to offer.
Comparing the average speeds through the mini sectors in Chart 3 shows that despite warm-up problems, the slick tyre was already starting to outperform the intermediate on lap 17. Verstappen was still faster by lap time but a lot of this comes down to the time loss under pitstop. Outside of the first braking zone at the Tamburello chicane, Ricciardo was faster through the other traction zones in the lap. This is a key point to look at since the difference in tyres is smallest on the straights (outside of a major power advantage). By lap 18, the advantage was clear as day.
However, despite this information, Ferrari opted not to respond straight away. In fact, it was Red Bull who blinked first and brought Perez into the pits at the end of lap 18 with Ferrari once again opting to stay out (in a bid to overtake by doing the opposite).
Chart 4: Strategy Decomposed
The strategy by Ferrari could have worked had it not been for a slow stop in the pits that allowed Perez the margin he needed to make the pass going into turn 4. Chart 4 highlights how Leclerc had the advantage when it came to in/out laps relative to Perez, but the almost 1.5 second slower pitstop is what accounted for most of the gap by the end of lap 20. While there’s no guarantee that Leclerc would have been guaranteed the position, it would have been a lot harder for Perez to reclaim the position for the same reasons that it was tough for Leclerc for the race thus far - track dynamics. The other element of peril is that braking on the wet line with slick tyres is fraught with risk and thus made an already narrow track even narrower. The slow activation of DRS would have been another obstacle for Perez if he were to fall into this hypothetical scenario. Nonetheless, Leclerc stayed behind Perez after the pitstops and Ferrari lost their queen in this chess match.
Chart 5: Lap Times Compared - Leclerc vs Perez
Chart 5 above gives a window into the pace differential between the top 3 drivers. While Verstappen had the clear advantage in the first stint, it was all closer together in the middle part of the race with a marginal advantage still going to Red Bull. While it is likely Verstappen was managing the pace at the front, and therefore had more pace in hand, Leclerc was hampered by the traffic and dirty air of Perez and hence also potentially had more pace. So then why wasn’t Leclerc able to make the overtake? Perez was fast enough down the main straight and able to position the car well to avoid being seriously threatened by Leclerc. This is even after DRS eventually being enabled.
With little levers left to pull, Ferrari had to roll the dice on strategy once again by opting for Plan D and trying to make a last-minute dash on the soft tyre. Chart 5 shows that Leclerc had some pace to create problems. Red Bull had the luxury to respond to neutralise any tyre mismatch disadvantage. This brought Leclerc back into the mix for P2 temporarily but the Monegasque pushed it a little too hard and spun the car on lap 53 and made an impact with the wall. Leclerc had to pit due to damage to the front wing and the race turned into damage limitation. Chart 2 from earlier shows the extent of the mistake as Leclerc came out behind Magnussen and very far behind the race leader. Leclerc was able to salvage a P6 finish but it came at a heavy opportunity cost of what could have been.
Ferrari’s weekend from Imola goes to show that having a competitive car is not enough - everything else needs to be in top shape as well. Ultimately Red Bull had a weekend with fewer mistakes. They got the lap times in when they needed them during qualifying. They were able to fight back in the sprint to reclaim P1. And finally, they delivered a clinical performance as a team to secure a 1-2 finish. Ferrari had spins throughout the weekend, suffered graining issues in the sprint and didn’t have the pace or the right execution on strategy. Add to this the huge cost of a small mistake from Leclerc and lap 53 and very quickly you find yourself in a big reduction in the points gap. While Leclerc still enjoys a meaningful lead in the championship, there is little room for further missteps from both driver and team. Verstappen was untouchable and Perez was great but still has room to close relative to his teammate.
Honourable Mentions and Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
It was a fantastic race in the midfield with both George Russell and Valtteri Bottas delivering a thrilling battle for P4. Russell did well to survive the threat from behind despite not having a front wing flap adjustment to help counter the understeer from the slick tyre transition and Bottas did well to challenge in the Alfa Romeo after getting caught up in the tangle with Ricciardo - lucky to not have major front wing damage. Elsewhere Norris delivered a lonely but effective drive to take his first podium for 2022. Yuki Tsunoda delivered a solid drive by harnessing the car’s potential on the medium tyre while Sebastian Vettel claimed his first points of the year making the most of the wet conditions from the earlier part of the race.
The next stop is the Miami Grand Prix. A new and unknown track will pose a challenge to teams and drivers alike. The track features some long power sections as well as some tight twisty sections providing an interesting trade-off exercise when it comes to car setup. The first four race of the season has seen Red Bull opt for a low drag setup to capitalise on the straights and make the most of DRS. Will we see a repeat strategy? Will Ferrari be able to bounce back from a tough weekend in Imola? Will we start to see some upgrades to the package? And how will the rest of the field fair? Can Russell keep up his run of top 5 finishes? Can McLaren resume their progression toward the front of the field? How will Haas and Alfa Romeo continue to shake out? Season storylines are developing and things are battles up and down the field are starting to get interesting. I’ll see you at the next one!
