Albon pulls a Point out of the Hat - Australia 2022
Source: FIA
Formula 1 returns to Australia but a lot has changed since the race down under had last been on the calendar. New regulations, different tyre constructions, changed track layout and a resurfaced circuit all added another element of intrigue to a weekend that was already building with anticipation. As the sessions progressed, the championship battle continued to develop with the advantage ebbing and flowing. And even though Charles Leclerc took a commanding pole position, the triple threat of Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez and an out of position Carlos Sainz set the scene for a potentially nail-biting battle of strategy between the top two teams. And in true unpredictable fashion, the race unfolded as anything but. Instead, it was Leclerc taking a dominant victory with an unsuspecting hero in the form of Alexander Albon taking the captivation of the audience. So how did we get here? Let’s jump straight into it.
If you can’t beat them, overcut them.
With the fight at the front becoming increasingly challenged (more on that later) attention moved further down the field. Given the headline, one would think that there must have been a major calamity for Williams to be garnering attention in 2022. And while there were a few retirements, Williams’ time in the limelight came via genuine pace and tenacious strategy.
Chart 1: Gap to Ocon
Albon started the race at the back of the grid following a disqualification due to a fuel sampling issue from qualifying. Given this, it made complete sense to roll the dice on the alternate strategy (i.e. starting on the harder tyre and finishing on the soft with the aim of benefitting from the better grip on a lighter car). However, this was always going to make for a tough first half of the race, with the rest of the field primed for better race pace. But the repeated safety cars, as shown in Chart 1, kept resetting the field and bringing Albon back into the mix with the rest of the pack. And as others took their pitstops by lap 26, Albon was right in the fix with the midfield.
At this point, many would expect the pace of the Thai-British driver to fall off a cliff. But it didn’t. In fact, Albon was able to maintain a similar pace to Esteban Ocon in the much faster Alpine despite being on 30 lap old hard tyres. The case could even be made that Albon was being adversely impacted by the wake of Kevin Magnussen who had already demonstrated the implications upon the Mclaren of Daniel Ricciardo. You would think that the virtual safety car on lap 39 was the answer to Williams prayers and an open invitation to take a cheap pitstop. But once again you would be mistaken, as the British team elected to stay out. Surely this was a mistake and the pace would fall away. But the results were the complete opposite as shown in Chart 2 below.
Chart 2: Lap Times Compared - Williams against the Midfield.
Looking at the trend pace between Albon against others at the head of the midfield showcases the competitive performance from the Williams. It is natural for lap times to improve as the race goes on due to fuel burn. Though at some point it is expected that the benefit of fuel burn is offset by the degradation of the tyre. This can be clearly seen in the profile of the other drivers whose lap times all begin to plateau or deteriorate. But this isn’t the case with Albon who shows no adverse impacts on performance. While Ocon was also able to avoid obvious tyre degradation as shown through his steady trend pace on the second stint, it pales in comparison to what Albon is able to deliver especially when you factor in that Ocon’s tyres are 17 laps younger. And for even additional context, Lance Stroll in the Aston Martin failed to come close to delivering a comparable performance despite being in a car that is facing similar challenges.
Turning back to Chart 1 and there is little doubt that Albon could have finished the race on the same tyre. However, due to the mandatory pitstop rule, Albon would have to make the obligatory stop at some point. Judging by the trajectory of Zhou Guanyu’s late charge and the falling away of Pierre Gasly, the time seemed right to try and consolidate a points-paying position while gambling on trying to get ahead of the AlphaTauri. While the latter was a long shot, staying ahead of the Alfa Romeo was no short order either. While the repeated safety cars played an important role in bringing Albon back in the hunt, the new Williams driver did an incredible job in tyre management and pace delivery to even create the situation where such a bold strategy could even be considered. Massive kudos.
Leclerc and Ferrari in a League of Their Own
Chart 3: Lap times Compared - Leclerc vs Red Bull
The 2022 season so far has been characterised by close battles between Leclerc and Verstappen who were often nip and tuck when it came to race pace. However, the outing in Australia was anything but with Chart 3 revealing a view that is diametrically opposed to the tone of the season with Leclerc being hand over fist faster than the competition. The gap in performance on the first stint is clear to see, with Leclerc’s trend pace being a parallel shift down but also one that extended for longer compared to the Red Bull, especially Verstappen. The performance deficit was smaller on the second stint with both on the hard tyre though the advantage still lay closely with the Monegasque as he had the margin to comfortably prefer for a successful campaign for the fastest lap at the end of the Grand Prix. While the engine troubles and retirement meant that Verstappen could no longer keep Leclerc honest for the length of the race, it was doubtful that the Dutchman would be in a position to mount a challenge for the lead - beyond the window of opportunity at the second safety car restart. Though regardless of this, it would seem that the race pace advantage of the Ferrari would be too much to overcome.
Charts 4 and 5: Race Pace Distributions on the Medium and Hard Tyre
Compared to the rest of the field and the advantage of the Ferrari is even more pronounced, especially on the medium tyre. Putting aside the plots of those who started on the hard tyre (Kevin Magnussen and Fernando Alonso), it would seem that most struggled with extracting performance from the tyre without succumbing to issues from graining. The experience is less pronounced on the hard tyre, with both Mercedes drivers being closer to the front of the field in this regard as well. There is also not much that separates the midfield, especially the likes of McLaren and Alpine.
Putting it all together and Ferrari was in a league of its own. This makes Sainz’s retirement even more painful for both the team and the Spaniard, as it was a missed opportunity to stretch the lead in both championships. For Leclerc however, the retirement would be seen as a small win (despite not taking more points off other drivers) as it stretches the gap between himself and his teammate. All these little things play a big role in being able to ascertain the number 1 driver status at a team like Ferrari. Nevertheless, it is still a long season and one only needs to look at last year to see how quickly a large championship lead can swing.
Watchpoints for Next Grand Prix
The next stop is Imola. Can Ferrari continue the momentum to deliver a victory in front of the home crowd? Or will the power dominance of Imola favour the powerful yet fragile motor of Red Bull? Can they overcome their reliability woes? The surface characteristics of Imola will be vastly different to that of Albert Park so it will be interesting to see how the pendulum swings with regard to who comes out on top in tyre management. Will we start to see upgrades here? If so, what impact will it have on the performance gaps and the pecking order? With it being so early in the new regulation era, the development race will prove to be extremely vital for any team hoping to cement their place in the championship. And it is the return of the sprint qualifying format: how will the 2022 cars fare? It’s only round 3 and so much to play for. See you in the next instalment.
