F1 Post-Race Data Analysis: Qatar 2021 — Damage Limitation for Red Bull
Source: FIA
Formula 1 arrived in Qatar to an atmosphere of suspense and intrigue. With it being the inaugural Formula 1 race for the nation, there was no established form book for which to set expectations. And as the floodlights of Losail illuminated the circuit, it also highlighted that the advantage lay in the court of Mercedes — claiming pole by almost half a second and having the edge in race simulations during free practice.
As such the table was set for another battle at the front, with Lewis Hamilton in P1 and Max Verstappen in P2. That is until another layer of jeopardy was thrown into the mix with grid penalties for Valtteri Bottas and Max Verstappen due to yellow flag infringements during qualifying, demoting both drivers down to P6 and P7 respectively.
These changes promoted Pierre Gasly to P2 and Fernando Alonso to P3 to set up a tantalising battle between AlphaTauri and Alpine for P5 in the constructor’s championship. And while not victims of penalties from qualifying, Sergio Perez and Charles Leclerc also started out of position due to shock exits in Q2. All of these incidences meant that everything was to play for in the race. So how did it all pan out?
P2 and Fastest Lap: A Win for Verstappen Given the Circumstances
With only 3 races remaining and a 14 point lead, one would think that Verstappen is sitting pretty as championship leader. But a dominant win in Brazil, a powerful new engine and a dominant showing in qualifying all indicate that Hamilton has the momentum. And given a starting position of P7, Verstappen would surely be happy to take any point that he can get.
Figure 1 — Gap to Ocon
Figure 1 showcases the potential of the W12 and Hamilton, as the Briton built a substantial gap to the rest of the field within a few laps. While clean air was significant to Hamilton’s charge out front, for Verstappen it highlighted the importance of exiting the dirty air of the slower cars ahead. Crucially Verstappen initiated his campaign with a stellar start, allowing him to get onto the back of Gasly by the first lap. By lap 5, Verstappen was already up to P2 and in the clean air to hunt down his main championship rival.
So as Verstappen effectively undid his penalty in the same of a few laps, Bottas had the opposite of fortunes falling from P6 to P11 in the opening lap. His poor start served as a pseudo penalty that meant he now suffered the problem very problem that Verstappen was crucially looking to avoid. Bottas was stuck in P11 and the dirty air until lap 10 where he started to make progress through the field. Verstappen could have had a similar fate without a good start and early progress through the field.
Figure 2 — Lap Times Compared: Verstappen vs Hamilton
Figure 2 compares the pace of the top two. Verstappen lags Hamilton in the first stint due to the earlier impetus in climbing from P7 to P2. While this was crucial for his race, it also meant he was pushing harder on the tyres than desirable. As such the Dutchman had to shift focus to tyre management to eke out enough laps for a decent 2-stop strategy.
Verstappen pitted on lap 17, just as the performance gap to Hamilton was starting to pick up. Hamilton opted to pit on the same lap to neutralise any threat of a long-shot undercut. With a resetting of the tyres, the pace between the two was level pegging for the majority of the 2nd stint. Any effort from Verstappen to reduce the gap was quickly offset by a faster lap from Hamilton. Once it became clear that a challenge for the lead was off, Red Bull opted to focus the final stint for the accolade of fastest lap.
Why focus on the fastest lap?
With Hamilton ahead of Verstappen at the end of the second stint, he would be closing the championship gap from 14 points to 7 points. The driver with the fastest lap in the race will earn an extra championship point provided they also finish in the top 10. So if Hamilton takes the fastest lap, he would be closing the gap to 6 points against Verstappen. If Verstappen were to take the fastest lap then the gap would only narrow to 8 points.
The difference between a lead of 6 points vs 8 points is crucial because it is always desirable to go into the final race of the season as the championship leader. Why? Because (knock on wood), if there is ever an altercation that results in the retirements of both championship contenders in the final race, then the driver with the most points at that moment would be crowned champion.
For this reason, the final stint was all centred on achieving this accolade. It’s worth mentioning that Verstappen had the advantage in this pursuit because of his healthy margin over the driver in P3. This is because Verstappen maintains the optionality of pitting for a set of soft tyres to go for the fastest lap attempt without forfeiting position. Hamilton didn’t have this option as Verstappen was within a pitstop’s gap.
This is precisely what happens as Verstappen pits on lap 55, allowing him to start the fastest lap attempt on the final lap of the race. It so happens that during this time there was a virtual safety car which reduced the time cost of Verstappen’s stop. However, this is an academic consideration as it had no impact on the running order for the race (although it did mean that some of Verstappen’s performance is filtered out from Figure 2). Nevertheless, the Dutchman was able to secure the fastest lap and do the maximum possible damage limitation in his fight with Hamilton.
Ferrari Extend Advantage Over McLaren But Leave Money on the Table
Figure 3 — Lap Times Compared: Norris vs Leclerc vs Sainz
Lando Norris has a solid showing for McLaren, outqualifying both Ferraris on Saturday and well placed to reduce the gap in the championship battle for P3. Norris had good pace for the majority of the race as evidenced through Figure 3 above. However, this was upended when the Briton suffered a late puncture on lap 49 which dropped him out of contention with both Ferraris. With Daniel Ricciardo lamenting out of the points-paying positions due to a fuel issue, McLaren ended up losing further ground the Ferrari.
In this regard Ferrari had a very strong race, but could it have been stronger?
Figure 4 — Stroll’s Undercut on Sainz
Turning our attention back to Figure 1 showcases how the Ferrari due were stuck behind Lance Stroll and Esteban Ocon for a majority of the race. This is in part due to Stroll and Aston Martin pulling off an effective undercut as shown in Figure 4 above. While the undercut was focused on claiming track position from Esteban Ocon, Stroll was able to gain a massive advantage on Sainz in 4 laps on the fresh hard tyre.
However, while the fresher rubber was advantageous earlier in the race, it served as a major detriment in the closing stages as multiple drivers suffered punctures due to the high loads put through the tyre. Pirelli had already advised against going for 1-stop strategies though many teams tried to push the envelope. This failed for both Williams drivers as well as Norris and therefore placed all the remaining one-stoppers on notice. As a result, Ocon and Stroll were forced to run a more conservative end to the race.
But this wasn’t necessarily the case for Ferrari. While both Ferrari drivers were also on a 1-stop, they had 3–4 laps of extra buffer relative to Ocon and Stroll. Figure 1 shows how the gap between the drivers was shrinking, particularly for Charles Leclerc who had very strong pace as shown in Figure 3 earlier. Ferrari had the option of swapping Carlos Sainz with teammate Leclerc to mount a challenge to the front two.
But Ferrari opted to stay conservative and wait for the opportunity at the very end of the race. This didn’t play out due to the late virtual safety car due to the retirement of Nicholas Latifi, allowing Stroll and Ocon the breathing room they needed to get to the end of the race unchallenged. In this regard, Ferrari could have stood to make a larger profit on Mclaren. That being said, winning harder at the risk of puncture of their own may have been a step too far. With two races left in the season, this could prove to be a critical flashpoint in the battle for P3.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Formula 1 arrives in Jeddah for the penultimate race of the season. It’s a newly constructed circuit (so new that it is still being constructed) that sure to invite a similar level of intrigue. However, the circuit’s design is not as complex and on the margin as Qatar. In a crude sense, Jeddah has the speed of Monza but the peril of Monaco’s walls. And while the high power dependency favours Mercedes, any mistake is likely to put a driver in the wall and out of the session. Jeddah will leave no prisoners so making no mistakes will be the crucial strategy here. Who will survive the metaphorical hunger games? We won’t have to wait soon to find out.
