F1 Post-Race Data Analysis: Saudi Arabia 2021 — Red Flags Rather Than Racing
Source: FIA
Where to even begin? Despite this being an inaugural event, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix is no stranger to controversy. The event was only confirmed earlier this year when the track was still a patch of dirt. In the months preceding there were serious questions raised as to whether the circuit would be completed on time and compliant. In the end, the circuit was finished but only by the skin of its teeth. Given this, it’s almost natural for the race to be marred in its own controversies resulting from on-track incidents, race direction and stewarding decisions as well as safety car/red flag periods.
These interruptions resulted in disruptions for all, but the consequences were not felt equally. Let’s take a deeper look at the winners and losers of the red flag and how good fortune trumped good performances on this day.
Red Flags Created Opportunities For Some and Taxes for Others
Figure 1: Tyre Strategy Summary
First red flag at Lap 13. Second red flag at lap 15.
Normally I would start my analysis with an overall summary of the race via a time to leader chart. But given all the disruptions via red flags and safety cars, it’s necessary to first understand the context of how the race started and how it evolved pre and post the red flag periods. Figure 1 showcases what tyres each driver used for the race and the duration of those stints.
The key thing to note with this chart is the drivers that pitted before the first red flag and those that didn’t. There was a safety car that was issued on lap 10. This was an invitation for many to take a ‘cheap’ pitstop under the cautionary period.
Why would you want to pit under a safety car? It allows you to switch tyres while the rest of the field is driving at a slower speed compared to the usual green flag conditions. This means they cover less ground while you are stationary and therefore your time loss for the race is lower relative to what it ordinarily would have been. It also gives the chance to catch up to the back of the pack.
Of course, other drivers pitting presents the alternate opportunity of staying out on track and gaining track position. This can be particularly tempting on a track where overtaking is difficult as the leading driver would just need to hold off the driver behind for long enough.
Another reason for doing this is that the initial safety car happened early in the race and perhaps too early to confidently take a new set of tyres to the end of the race. This was an especially unfortunate situation for those that started on the hard tyre, as they would need to run a different compound to be compliant with the rules of using two different tyre compounds for a dry race.
And finally, the other reason to stay out could simply be to take a gamble on another safety car appearing later on in the race for another cheap pitstop opportunity. Or as the race would have it, a subsequent red flag period.
What is a red flag? It is the cessation of a race on safety grounds and all the cars return to the pits. Here, teams are able to change tyres, as well as perform certain basic repairs before the race is resumed. The race can be resumed as either a standing or rolling start depending on the determination made by the race director on safety grounds.
As a result, all drivers that stayed out on track hit the lottery — they got to change their tyres without making a pitstop and effectively consolidated track position against those that pitted. It is also worth calling out that there was a second red flag period immediately after the first due to a collision at turn 2. Some drivers took this as an opportunity to switch tyres again.
With the context now established, we can dive into analysing driver performance.
P2 was Likely Verstappen’s Best Option Based on Pace Alone
Figure 2 — Gap to Ocon
Yellow boxes denote safety car, virtual safety car or red flag periods.
Figure 2 showcases a full view of the race. The standout feature of the chart is the disruptive periods from the safety cars and red flags. The stop-start nature of these periods repeatedly stalled any progress a driver was making in creating/closing a gap to their rivals. This is particularly important in the battle between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen.
Verstappen claimed the lead of the race at the second red flag restart where he was on the medium tyre with Hamilton on the hard tyre. With 33 laps remaining, Verstappen had his work cut out for him keeping his title rival behind while keeping the tyre alive till the end. But despite being on the faster tyre, Verstappen was never able to break away from Hamilton who always stayed within 2 seconds a shown in Figure 2.
On one hand, the case can be made that the virtual safety car (VSC) periods were a hindrance to Verstappen’s ability to open a gap to Hamilton. On the other hand, the case can be made that the VSCs were critical in extending the longevity of the tyre. Either way, Hamilton was within striking distance with the final VSC.
Verstappen maintained the lead but only by gaining a lasting advantage by going off-track. This was then followed by a collision between the two drivers in a miscommunicated and misunderstood effort to swap positions. Both drivers sustained damage but Verstappen wasn’t able to defend for much longer after his tyres had run out of optimal performance.
Figure 3 — Lap Times Compared: Verstappen vs Hamilton
This point is emphasised in Figure 3 above that shows the performance deviation between the two drivers. Figure 3 also highlights how Hamilton was significantly faster in the first stint while Verstappen struggled in Bottas’ dirty air. Further to this, Figure 3 also shows that Hamilton was able to match the pace of Verstappen in the middle of the race despite using the harder tyre.
This final detail is ultimately why Verstappen was not able to sustain his challenge against Hamilton. While Verstappen was also hampered by damage, the simple fact that Hamilton had equivalent pace while on a harder tyre meant it was only a matter of time before the overtake would happen. In the end, the faster car won.
While this may seem like a loss for the Dutchman, I would see it as a win. Given the strength of the Mercedes package, Verstappen’s best shot at winning was by starting ahead of Hamilton while being on the same tyre. He lost his first shot at this in qualifying with a mistake in the final corner of what was an amazing lap. He had a second opportunity at the first red flag restart but lost ground to Hamilton from the line. An error at the second restart from Valtteri Bottas also meant Verstappen wasn’t challenged from behind. The result means both go into the final race of the championship on equal points.
Mixed Fortunes for McLaren While Ferrari Fail to Limit Damage
Figure 4 — Lap Times Compared: McLaren vs Ferrari
While the faster car won between Hamilton and Verstappen, the same cannot be said in the battle between Mclaren and Ferrari. Figure 4 above highlights both Ferrari drivers were significantly faster than Pierre Gasly and Daniel Ricciardo in the final leg of the race. Yet both Ferrari drivers finished behind in the final classification. The culprit? The red flag.
The effect of this is best shown in Figure 2 earlier whereby Charles Leclerc fell from P4 to P10. This put the driver on the back foot having to fight through the field while fighting with his teammate. It’s also worth noting that teammate Carlos Sainz is one who benefited from the red flag after a poor result in qualifying the day before.
Ricciardo benefited the most, after starting P11 and launching up to P5. And while the Australian had decent pace initially relative to his competitors, it eventually became lacklustre toward the end of the race. Ironically, his teammate, Lando Norris was hard done by due to the red flag. The young Briton went from P6 to last and also suffered in traffic for the majority of the race.
With this as context, we can establish why Ferrari had missed an opportunity to limit the damage from the chaos of the race. Figure 4 shows that Leclerc had better pace compared to Sainz from lap 40 onwards. Sainz’s tyres begin to deteriorate meaningfully from lap 47 onwards. Nowhere in this time was a driver swap discussed to allow Leclerc to attack Gasly and Ricciardo. The opportunity can be seen in Figure 2, with Gasly and Ricciardo not that far up the road and both travelling at a benign pace as shown in Figure 4. While it may have been an outside chance, the team order could have allowed for a greater points haul in their crucial battle for P3 in the constructor’s championship.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
It’s the final race of the season, and both championship contenders are on equal points. Now it is simply a matter of who finishes ahead. While the constructor’s championship is still open, it appears to be a tall order after Sergio Perez’s DNF this weekend. Will Ferrari cement their place in P3 for the constructors? Only one week is left before the final chapter is written for not only the 2021 season but also this era of turbo-hybrid cars.
See you next week for the finale.
