F1 Post-Race Data Analysis: Russia 2021 — One Moment. Do You Capture It? Or Let It Slip?

The cinema of the Russian Grand Prix has been a consistent screenplay since its beginning in 2014 — involving a victory for Mercedes with little to no excitement. However this weekend’s Grand Prix bucks that trend with a storyline so drama-filled it could contend for the race of the season. So as the rain brought tears of joy to some and tears of pain to others, let’s explore the key moments that created such a monumental climax. 

Heartbreak for Norris and Jubilation for Hamilton’s Century

Figure 1 — Gap to Hamilton Part 1

Figure 2 — Gap to Hamilton Part 2

A simple analysis of the race classification would never invite one to investigate the battle between Lewis Hamilton (P1) and Lando Norris (P7). Instead, they would simply see another race where Hamilton won with a dominant margin. Yet that same observer would miss the dramatic clash between David and Goliath. Even one gap chart cannot do the tale justice. And while the summary of the story is simple — Norris and McLaren made the wrong decision on intermediate tyres — the journey is not so simple.

It begins at the starting grid, with Norris claiming his first career pole position and Hamilton in P4. Daniel Ricciardo, the teammate of Norris, was just behind in P5. It was expected that Hamilton would get the jump on his rivals in front, and sail to a relatively easy victory. Instead, he was jumped by many cars including Ricciardo who then proceeded to keep Hamilton at bay for 21 laps as shown in Figure 1. 

This is an important detail as it allowed Norris to maintain his gap to Hamilton and then extend his lead once he had dispatched Carlos Sainz ahead. What also stands out is that despite having an arguably faster car, Hamilton was not able to clear Ricciardo, and the longer this carried on, the higher the chance that Norris would take the win. And then Mercedes got smart with their strategy.

Figure 3 — Pit Stop Battle Between Ricciardo and Hamilton

With Hamilton struggling behind Ricciardo, falling further behind the leaders and damaging his tyres in the dirty air, Mercedes needed to deploy strategy to clear the Australian. Hamilton called for an undercut, and McLaren prepared to cover off the threat. Unbeknownst to them, Hamilton was also advised to do the opposite of whatever Ricciardo does. So as the Australian came into the pits, the Briton stayed out on track. 

This in itself isn’t necessarily contentious however the tactic invited the potential for something to go wrong in the pitstop. And that’s exactly what happened with Ricciardo losing roughly 3.7 seconds to Hamilton as shown in Figure 3. The figure also shows that Ricciardo and Hamilton had equal pace for the laps between their pitstops. This indicates clearly that the entire loss in position came down to the slower stop. 

Figure 4 — Race Pace Distribution on the Hard Tyre

Mercedes triumph in this regard is also reflected in the annotations within Figure 1. And with little defence coming from Sainz, it was not long before Hamilton was travelling in free air and hunting down his fellow countryman. Hamilton’s pace in free air was relentless and was clear of the field as shown in Figure 4 above. 

Putting together Figure 1 and Figure 4 would lead you to think that the Hamilton win was inevitable. However, this misses the context that Norris had a greater spread in lap time as he was managing fuel loads and tyres. Hamilton’s narrow spread is indicative of him pushing hard to close the gap. And as was the case with Ricciardo earlier in the race, it is one thing to catch, it’s another thing to pass, and Norris was managing the gap handsomely for much of the 2nd stint. Until he wasn’t.

Figure 5 — Tyre Strategy

Figure 6— Race Pace and Crossover To Intermediates

Figure 6 showcases the trend pace over the race for both Hamilton and Norris. Overall, the pair were neck and neck until the rain settled in on Lap 47. The track still suited the dry tyre in the early stages of the rain though Mercedes opted to pit Bottas anyway as shown in Figure 5. At this stage, Bottas was outside of the points and well behind the field, so taking a risk by pitting for intermediates immediately was warranted. Figure 6 highlights how the gamble to switch to intermediates was successful whilst also providing the team crucial information on how to manage the situation for Hamilton. 

Figure 7 — Sector Analysis for Switching Tyres

Figure 7 provides even greater detail into the situation by showcasing sector times relative to Bottas. Bottas pitted on lap 47 and was already 6 seconds faster than both Norris and Hamilton by the end of sector 2 on lap 48. This was a clear sign that the conditions had dramatically changed to suit the intermediate tyre. Both Hamilton and Norris ignored their team’s pleas to pit and Bottas continued his extend his advantage by another 5 seconds in sector 2 on lap 49. 

This was enough for Mercedes to become more persuasive with Hamilton as he came into the pits on the end of lap 49. On the following lap, Hamilton was already lapping faster than Bottas through sectors 2 and 3. By then it was too late. Even if Norris came into the pits on lap 50, he wouldn’t be able to claw back the deficit to Hamilton. However, pitting on lap 50 would have stopped the bleeding and dropping down the order to P7. 

Ultimately, it was both team and driver experience that won out in the end. McLaren as we know it today does not have the experience in recent years to be dealing with such high-pressure moments. Playing armchair strategy expert after the fact is much easier than an on-the-fly strategy in a race defining moment. Be that as it may, this will be a tool that McLaren will soon need to add to their arsenal if they are to avoid future missteps. In any case, it was a valiant effort and a hard but valuable learning experience for both Norris and Mclaren.

Rain Strategy was ‘Make or Break’ for Many Drivers

Figure 8 — Lap Times Compared: Mercedes vs Red Bull vs Alonso

With Max Verstappen and Valtteri Bottas both taking engine penalties and starting from the back of the grid, expectations rested on the shoulders of Sergio Perez to deliver a strong result for Red Bull. Starting the race in P8, Perez had his work cut out for him. Yet despite the poor qualifying, Perez showed tremendous pace, being able to keep up with Hamilton for all of the first stint. The same goes for the tenacious Fernando Alonso who was battling Perez all race. Both drivers went long with their first stint and were closing in for a potential podium finish shown in Figure 2. 

However, Perez and Alonso were another driver pair that were caught out by the rain and waited too long to switch to intermediate tyres as demonstrated by Figure 5. However, the decision to wait makes little sense especially given Red Bull pitted Verstappen on lap 48. Were they looking to hedge their bets? It makes even less sense when considering the previous analysis with Figure 7. Ultimately both teams here ended up severely compromising their performance as emphasised in Figure 8 above. The situation is worse for Perez, who also suffered a slow first pitstop that would have comfortably put him 6 seconds ahead and arguably in a position where the wet tyre mishap was less likely. 

On the other hand, Verstappen and Bottas were benefactors of the quick downpour at the end of the race. Verstappen had a mega first stint with very strong pace after dispatching Bottas as shown in Figure 1. However, the Dutchman’s pace on the 2nd stint was far from impressive as shown in Figure 8 above that left him stuck behind Alonso as shown in Figure 2. However, the decision to pit on Lap 48, saved him from the mishaps of those who delayed as shown in the final laps of Figure 2. It was almost as if the road simply opened up in front of Verstappen to drive to the second step of the podium — after starting from the back of the grid.

Bottas’ experience of the Russian Grand Prix was similar to Verstappen, although the Finnish driver’s pace in the first stint was quite lacklustre as shown in both Figure 1 and Figure 8 above. 

Figure 9 — Lap Times Compared: Leclerc vs Sainz

Charles Leclerc was another driver that was servicing engine penalties and started from the back of the grid. His teammate, Carlos Sainz qualified on P2 and was leading the opening parts of the race. However, Sainz suffered from tyre graining and quickly lost the pace as shown in Figure 9 above. His 2nd stint was a better, more consistent performance though it was the decision to pit on lap 48 that brought the Spaniard back into the mix for the podium. Without the rain, he looked vulnerable to Perez and Alonso as discussed previously and shown in Figure 2. 

Despite starting from the back of the field, Leclerc was able to demonstrate pace that was equal to or better than his teammate. This was made more impressive by the fact that Leclerc’s pace stayed strong even deep into the stint. The Monegasque’s pace on the second stint was equally strong until the weather turned. However, the decision to not double stack, or delay Leclerc’s pitstop undid the fruits of his labour. In the end, Leclerc became another casualty of tentative strategy during the rain.

Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix

Can the 2021 season get any better than this? There’s only one way to find out. Only two points separate Hamilton and Verstappen and the duel between McLaren and Ferrari continues to intensify. Time to take a brief break and come back for a hopefully exciting race in Turkey.