F1 Post-Race Data Analysis: Italy 2021 — Ricciardo Never Left
Source: FIA
Another feel-good story for 2021. After a season with his fair share of difficulties, Daniel Ricciardo rediscovered his winning ways as he spearheaded a McLaren 1–2 at his de-facto home race in Italy. And while the incident between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton was a controversial and drama-igniting moment for the championship, it was not the moment that delivered Ricciardo his win. Ricciardo earned his victory by capitalising on the opportunity at the race start and finding the pace to maximise McLaren’s affinity for Monza. Let’s take a deeper look at this, and the other key performers from this year’s Italian Grand Prix.
A Sign of What’s Possible When Ricciardo Gets Qualifying Right
It has been Ricciardo’s unexpected Achilles heel — qualifying. Yet the Australian was finally able to bring it all together and allow himself the best opportunity to make an impact in the race.
Figure 1 — Winners and Losers of Qualifying
Figure 1 evaluates the qualifying performance of the field by comparing actual lap times against a driver’s ‘perfect lap’ (the sum of their best sector times). This indicates whether a driver has extracted the maximum performance from the car. It has been common for Ricciardo to be out-qualified by his teammate, Lando Norris.
It has also been common for there to be a sizeable disparity in the raw performance between the two drivers, with Ricciardo also showing a meaningful gap to his perfect lap time. However, Figure 1 shows a different tale. Instead, Ricciardo has delivered a near-perfect lap that is just shy of Norris’ performance.
While Ricciardo’s qualifying pace throughout the season has left much to be desired, his race pace has been on par with Norris. The issue with this is that Ricciardo’s race pace would need to be several orders of magnitude better to be able to make up for the initial deficit of starting further down the grid. This is exactly why Ricciardo’s recent qualifying performance was so crucial. By starting next to Norris, he would finally have the canvas by which to demonstrate what he is capable of in a fast car.
The sprint qualifying race was a perfect example of this as well as the perfect teaser for Sunday’s main event. Ricciardo was able to finish the event in P3 and qualify to start Sunday’s race in P2 due to Valtteri Bottas incurring penalties due to engine component changes. This positioned him alongside Verstappen and ahead of Norris, the near-perfect starting situation for Ricciardo.
Figure 2 — Gap to Leclerc
Ricciardo had a great start and claimed the lead going into Turn 1. From here, Ricciardo had the commanding position in the race. Figure 1 showcases the comfortable lead that Ricciardo had in the first half of the race. It is important to note that the gap between Ricciardo and Norris for the first half is not entirely representative as Hamilton and Verstappen have been filtered from the chart due to their incident. However, this caveat only applies for the first half, as the safety car period reset the race.
This is where we begin to see the making of Ricciardo’s incredible race as the safety car period was not a straightforward situation. On one hand, the incident removed the threat from two contenders. While on the other hand the safety car effectively negated Ricciardo’s advantage from the first stint.
Figure 3 — Pace Distribution on the Medium Tyre
Figure 4 — Pace Distribution on the Hard Tyre
Figure 3 illustrates the distribution of pace amongst the top 12 runners on the medium tyre. It is clear to see that Ricciardo had exceptional pace, 2nd only to Bottas who used the medium tyre in his second stint and was notably superior to his teammate Norris. In any case, Bottas would present himself as a credible threat to both Mclarens in the 2nd stint due to this pace advantage.
Figure 4 shows that the pace differential amongst the field narrows on the hard tyre. Norris can match Ricciardo’s pace on the hard tyre, helped greatly by not having to fight Verstappen or Hamilton as was the case in the first stint. However, Figure 4 also shows that the pace of Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez were still a threat to consider.
Turning back to Figure 1 armed with the insights of Figure 4 helps to better appreciate the challenge that Ricciardo survived. Four rivals were comfortably within 5 seconds of the Australian. It was only from Lap 41 onwards where Ricciardo was able to break the momentum and start to pull away. So even though Figure 1 shows an unchallenged plot of Ricciardo’s drive for the victory, a deeper look at his competitor’s race pace reveals it was far from a simple exercise.
McLaren Had the Limelight but Ferrari Exceeded Expectations
Performing to the high standards of the Tifosi is no small feat. Doing this on home ground after engine development issues only adds to the challenge. Throw in an unwell Charles Leclerc and it starts to sound like a recipe for disappointment. Yet despite all of this, both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz delivered a strong points result when most observers counted them out.
Figure 5 — Ferrari vs McLaren
McLaren were the stars of the show but Figure 5 reveals that Ferrari was not far from the pace of their main title rivals. Leclerc’s pace was on par with Norris for the majority of the first stint. This is what allowed Leclerc to always stay within 5 seconds of Norris in the first stint as shown in Figure 1. This was expected to be repeated in the second stint, however, both Ferrari cars had issues at the beginning of the second stint — likely due to tyre warm up during the safety car period. Once this settled, the Ferrari’s were able to crack the reigns and quickly up the speed. At their best, they were able to match the McLaren duo once again until the closing stages of the race.
It was this pace that allowed Leclerc to P4 ahead of Perez who incurred a 5 second time penalty. The result was just shy of a podium at a track where engine power is king and Ferrari didn’t have much of it. However, Figure 5 invites the question: what was the difference between Leclerc and Sainz?
Figure 6 — Leclerc vs. Sainz
Figure 6 is a deeper look into Figure 5, this time adding the individual data points for both Leclerc and Sainz. This exercise reveals a key component that is missed with the initial trend analysis: consistency. During the first stint, Sainz’s lap times are erratic and the Spaniard can never seem to find a decent rhythm.
This is in contrast to Leclerc who was not just consistent in the first stint, but consistently faster as well. Sainz wasn’t helped by a few disproportionately slow laps either. And while the situation was meaningfully better for Sainz during the second stint, it would have been of little value without the safety car that helped compensate for the weaker first stint. In the end, P6 was a good result, but at a notable deficit to his teammate in terms of race pace.
An Underrated Drive From Bottas That Deserves More Credit
Not sure what version of Bottas arrived in Monza this weekend but it was a Bottas that looking cool calm and collected. While one can speculate on the ‘why’ this may be the case, few can argue against the unrelenting pace that the Finn was able to deliver.
Figure 7 — Bottas vs. Perez
Bottas finished on the podium after starting from the back of the field due to serving grid penalties. Figure 1 illustrated this charge, particularly against the two Ferraris. And while the Finn wasn’t able to the Red Bull of Perez, his pace was such that he could stay within striking distance and inherit the final podium place. Figure 7 provides additional detail into Bottas’ impressive performance. Despite fighting traffic in his first stint, he can demonstrate pace that is similar to Perez. The Hamilton-Verstappen incident and McLaren may have taken the headlines, but Bottas’ performance deserves more plaudits. Honourable mention goes to George Russell who claimed another points finish.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
The end of a tripleheader and the start of a short but well-earned break. The next stop is Sochi which is Bottas’ stomping ground. While the Finn has been strong here, will he have the clear advantage over Hamilton, or will team orders rear their head again for the sake of the championship? Verstappen has a 3-place grid penalty but is likely to change engine components and start from the back. What sort of damage limitation will he be able to manage. And with McLaren reclaiming P3 in the constructors, how will their battle with Ferrari play out?
I’ll catch you in the next instalment. Stay safe!
