F1 Post-Race Data Analysis: Abu Dhabi 2021 — Fin.
Source: FIA
Max Verstappen is the 2021 Formula 1 World Driver’s Champion. The crowning of the Netherlands’ first F1 champion was not without controversy, clinching the win on the final lap of the race after a late safety car brought the Dutchman within striking distance of his title rival, Lewis Hamilton who, till that point, was comfortably leading the race.
With a season that’s been nothing short of a rollercoaster of highs and lows intertwined with drama and controversy, perhaps it’s no surprise that the final, title-deciding race, ended up being a microcosm for the tone of the season. There is no doubt that the race direction and stewarding of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix — along with many other points in the season — requires further inspection and consideration.
Be that as it may, I will be taking the events and verdicts to date as given in the analysis of how Verstappen claimed his maiden championship. We will also take a look at how Carlos Sainz secured 5th in the driver’s championship after taking the final spot on the podium as well as Yuki Tsunoda’s return to form with his best drive of the season.
Hamilton Took the Lead at the Start but Lost it at the Finish
Figure 1 — Hamilton’s Lightning Start Over Verstappen
The world was primed for a strategic battle between Verstappen, who was starting on the softs, and Hamilton who was starting on the mediums. The textbook would give the advantage to the Dutchman, starting in P1 on the higher grip tyre. But reality would not play out that way as Hamilton had the faster reaction time and did a better job building speed into the first corner as shown by the telemetry analysis in Figure 1.
The throttle trace (2nd subplot) shows how Hamilton was able to get onto more throttle sooner than Verstappen which translated into greater speed (1st subplot). Hamilton was then able to command the corner entry with Verstappen having to brake much earlier and lose the momentum out of the corner.
But Verstappen recoups going into turn 5 before tucking into the slipstream behind Hamilton for the first of the two back straights to make a move on Hamilton into turn 6, inviting the first round of controversy.
Figure 2 — Lap 1 Turn 6 Battle Between Hamilton and Verstappen
Figure 2 provides the telemetry information for both drivers for laps 1 and 2 between the braking zone of turn 6 to after turn 9. Lap 2 is included here to provide a reference to what is expected on a ‘normal’ racing lap rather than the first frenetic lap of the Grand Prix.
Braking for turn 6 occurs roughly at the 2400m mark, with the speed trace showing how Verstappen was carrying greater speed into the corner. Verstappen is ahead at the apex but takes a wide line on exit for which Hamilton then goes off track. Hamilton is much quicker to get back on the throttle (roughly the 2550m mark) and carries much more speed onto the start of the 2nd straight compared to Verstappen. On this alone, it would seem crystal clear that Hamilton gained a lasting advantage while off track and was at risk of being asked to give the position back or risk a penalty from the stewards.
But the telemetry following this incident shows that Hamilton comes off the throttle many times until the braking points before turn 9 (roughly 3400m). This, alongside the slipstream, help account for Verstappen carrying much greater speed into turn 9. This was a very intelligent move by both Hamilton and Mercedes as they were able to hand back the advantage of leaving the track, while not sufficiently risking track position — given that overtaking into turn 9 or the rest of sector 3 is difficult.
Whether the lack of investigation was the right call or not is something that can be debated (though out of scope for this analysis). Regardless of this, Mercedes’ actions ensured that the risk of referee interference would be minimised in this instance. And with this Hamilton pulled away from Verstappen and the race shifted into a potential slow burn on strategy.
Figure 3 — Race Pace Compared: Hamilton vs Verstappen
As Figure 3 showcases, it wasn’t long before Verstappen was starting to struggle on his soft tyres during the first stint shown by the deterioration in pace from lap 9. Hamilton in the meanwhile was maintained course with consistency. Verstappen made the switch to new hard tyres at the end of lap 13 with Hamilton and Mercedes responding on the following lap. Verstappen has the marginal edge for a few laps but the real scare for Hamilton came in the form of a “Fernando Alonso like” defence from the other Red Bull of Sergio Perez on laps 20 and 21.
Figure 4 — Telemetry Analysis of Time Lost from Perez’ Defence
The telemetry analysis in Figure 4 compares Hamilton’s performance from lap 20, involving the defence from Perez, and a reference with no obstruction on lap 22. The first subplot shows the time delta between the two laps, with lap 20 as the baseline and lap 22 as the plotted performance. This showcases that Hamilton was about 5 seconds faster on lap 22 than on lap 20. Put another way, Perez cost Hamilton 5 seconds of race time in one lap. The bulk of this came after the turn 6 chicane where Perez, with DRS, had a run on Hamilton to retake the position into turn 9. Perez was then able to very effectively hold up Hamilton in the difficult to overtake sector 3 (roughly 3400m onwards) as demonstrated by the lower speeds and lower throttle input.
This, alongside the additional time loss on lap 21, allowed Verstappen to come within 2 seconds of Hamilton. And while Verstappen wasn’t close enough to mount a second challenge, Perez’s work would bear fruit in the later stages of the race.
Figure 5 — Gap to Bottas
A bit later than normal, but the gap to the nominated driver chart makes its usual appearance. While many of the key focal points have already been addressed, we are yet to delve into the more crucial of them all — the strategic decisions around the virtual safety car (VSC) on lap 35/36.
Figure 5 shows that Verstappen was struggling to make a dent in Hamilton’s lead of the race. This is no surprise, as Figure 3 shows that the performance differential between both drivers was minimal on the hard tyre — with Hamilton having the marginal advantage. If things stayed the same, there was no way Verstappen would win the title — excluding extraordinary circumstances (more on that later). As such Red Bull would need to flirt with the idea of a second pit stop if they had any hope of shifting the tides of the race. The onset of the VSC turned this flirtation into commitment, as the prospect of a cheaper pitstop was too good to ignore — especially after Mercedes reneged his first opportunity to take the same decision.
And while one can have some sympathy for Mercedes’ ‘conservative’ approach with race strategy in this instance, it is difficult to do so when Mercedes’ reneged the opportunity for a second time on the following lap. At this point, both Verstappen and Perez had already taken their pitstops so the risk of Hamilton losing track position was materially lower. Mercedes had the pace advantage on the hard tyre, so even if Hamilton fell behind Verstappen, they would have the advantage on pace to make an on-track overtake for the lead.
If hedging the tyre risk was not important enough, then another benefit of this approach is that it would reduce the risk of being caught out by a late-stage safety car while remaining on old worn tyres. And while hindsight will say this should have been the dominant risk to have taken into account, one must remember that while the risk of loss from the late safety car scenario is high, the odds are low. One could position that while the risk of not overtaking Max after pitting is low, the odds may be higher of it not working out. In any case, it appears that Mercedes rolled the dice on hanging it out to the end with the hope that they would avoid any on-track battles while risking a late safety car.
It also needs to be called out that Mercedes losing circa 6 seconds from Perez is a likely factor in their leaning towards a conservative strategy. An extra 6 seconds would have provided them with the margin of safety required to cover a Verstappen pit-stop. As such Perez’s defence played a crucial role in placing the Mercedes’ pit wall in a tentative position.
Returning to Figure 3 shows that while Verstappen had better pace on the new set of hards, it wasn’t consistently fast enough to close the required gap to Hamilton. As Verstappen pushed, the tyre performance continued to fall away and Hamilton was able to put in equivalent times despite being on the older rubber. Had things remained course, Hamilton would have taken the chequered flag and placing the magnifying glass over Mercedes’ race strategy would be an academic exercise.
Except fate played out differently. Instead, Nicholas Latifi had an unfortunate adventure into the wall at turn 14 that threw up the exact safety car scenario that Mercedes’ strategy was vulnerable to. Simply put, they played the percentages and the tail risk — the perfect storm. The safety car reset the race and with nothing left to lose, Red Bull opted to pit for a fresh set of soft tyres. The race director’s influence on the series of events under the safety car cannot be ignored. Right or wrong (once again, out of scope for this), it happened and the race was converted to a final lap showdown between David and Goliath, albeit with David having the advantage in this situation.
Hamilton made a valiant effort to hold onto the championship but Verstappen’s grip advantage was too much into turn 5. Hamilton almost returned serve in turn 9 but it was always going to be a tall order. From there, Verstappen kept it out of the wall until the finish line and placed one hand on the trophy.
Sainz Delivers Another Solid Performance for a Podium and P5 in the WDC
Figure 6 — Race Pace Compared: Sainz vs Norris vs Leclerc
While all eyes were on the front, Carlos Sainz climbed up to the final step of the rostrum. Sainz inherited P3 after Perez suffered a late retirement due to a mechanical issue with the car. Regardless of this, the Spaniard drove a faultless race, confidently best of the rest as demonstrated by Figure 3 earlier. The result was crucial for his battle with Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc for 5th place in the World Driver’s Championship.
Sainz secured the clearer air after Norris took an excursion at turn 1 after running wide following the start of the race which put the Briton on the back foot. Leclerc had a good getaway from the line but wasn’t able to get ahead of teammate Sainz. As a result, both Leclerc and Norris trailed the Spaniard in the first stint. However, from lap 10 onwards, both Norris and Leclerc struggled with the soft tyre as the performance started to degrade as shown in Figure 6 above. Both drivers opted to pit soon after while Sainz carried on, without compromising his pace.
All drivers managed their tyres through the middle phase of the race though Leclerc had a different profile in his pace and degradation profile as shown in Figure 6. While he was initially faster, Figure 3 shows he was not making any headway, only to end up losing performance from lap 30 onwards. The VSC presented an opportunity to end the trend however the Monegasque driver could not bring the tyres to life and continued to have lacklustre pace. This was made worse by the fact that Leclerc continued to lament in traffic as shown in Figure 3. After falling so far back in the field relative to his rivals, there was little that Leclerc could do.
Norris on the other hand had good pace, despite facing some gearbox issues earlier. The Briton was going toe to toe with Sainz until he suffered a slow puncture which forced him to take an additional pitstop. This dropped him back in the field only laps before the Latifi crash that could trigger the full course safety car. But as was the situation with Leclerc, without a standard queue behind the safety car, there was little that either driver could do to salvage their races.
Sainz stayed reliable and consistent for the whole race and stood to lose all that progress with the safety car in the final stages as it allowed both Yuki Tsunoda, Pierre Gasly and Valtteri Bottas to close up to the back of him. The Spaniard fought hard on the final lap and held onto his position to take the chequered flag ahead of the rest. It was a solid way to close out the first season at Ferrari.
Yuki Tsunoda Finished the Season with a P4
Figure 7 — Race Pace Compared: Tsunoda vs Gasly vs Bottas vs Sainz
After a difficult and inconsistent season, Tsunoda’s labour has born some fruit. The Japanese driver has shown improvement over recent races in both one-lap pace and over race distance, both coming to the fore in Abu Dhabi. Tsunoda was the only driver other than the Mercedes duo to break into the top 10 of qualifying with the medium tyre, and therefore giving his race the best foundation possible.
From here the Japanese driver delivered a stellar first stint that rivalled the pace of Valtteri Bottas — albeit the Finnish driver didn’t have his car/setup in optimal conditions. Regardless of this, Tsunoda continued to deliver consistent pace through the second stint as shown in Figure 7. Crucially he was on the same pace as his teammate, who was on the alternate strategy and also benefitted from an opportune VSC.
And with the late safety car, both Gasly and Tsunoda took the opportunity with both hands and made the most of their fresh soft tyres. Both were able to effectively attack Bottas and almost make a play for the podium in their battle with Sainz. The latter would prove to be too difficult in the end but the result was positive for both the team and Tsunoda who has hopefully turned a new leaf in his adjustment to Formula 1.
Final Thoughts
Congratulations to Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing for winning the World Drivers Championship. Congratulations to Lewis Hamilton, Valtteri Bottas and Mercedes AMG F1 for winning the World Constructor’s Championship. No matter how the result went in Abu Dhabi, both were worth champions. However, just like Schrodinger’s cat, we cannot exist in the superposition and one driver must win while the other driver must lose. And while it’s a shame that this incredible, closely fought season amongst two worthy opponents has been clouded in controversy, it doesn’t take away from the achievements and calibre of both Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen.
And while I haven't delved too deeply into the race direction or the stewarding, I do hope that improvements are made for when F1 returns in 2022. With a new generation of cars, new rules and new driver pairings there is so much to be excited about in the new year.
But for now, it's time for a much-needed break. I’d like to take this chance to thank every one of you that follows my content — whether you are new or have been here from the start. I look forward to coming back with even greater content and I hope you can be here to share it with me. Till then, take care and I’ll see you soon.
