Ferrari is Back - Bahrain 2022

Source: FIA

Formula 1 is back for 2022. With a change in regulations marking the dawn of a new era, expectations were high for the emergence of a new pecking order. And as the cars took to the track, it was Ferrari and RedBull who contested for the King of the Hill while Haas and Alfa Romeo disrupted the midfield order. With so many talking points to cover from the first race, let’s jump straight into it.

Ferrari is Back … Ferrari is Back.

They were the words of Sebastian Vettel’s engineer as he crossed the line to win the 2015 Malaysian Grand Prix. It was the Ferrari’s first victory since Spain 2013 and the first victory of the turbo-hybrid era. The win came from a bold race strategy that saw the scarlet team overcome the dominant Mercedes. And while Ferrari has had several wins in the remainder of the hybrid era, they have failed to perform at a level of consistency that would earn them the driver’s or constructor’s championship.

This is why Charles Leclerc’s victory at the 2022 Bahrain Grand Prix is an important flashpoint for Ferrari. The performance evoked a passion and jubilation that echoes Vettel’s performance from Malaysia but goes one step beyond. Ferrari’s triumph was more than just a good strategy – it was all-round performance. It is for this reason that Ferrari is now at the cusp of becoming a legitimate title contender this season. So how did it all play out?

Chart 1: Lap 1 T1-T4

Charles Leclerc led away from pole position with Max Verstappen hot on his heels. The Monegasque covers the inside and brakes early as he tries to dictate Verstappen to a wider line. As turn 2 opens up to the left, Leclerc is able to pin the throttle much sooner than Verstappen as he builds speed for the next straight shown above. While this manoeuvre meant Leclerc had less top-end speed into T1, it set him up perfectly for the run into T4. Here, the Ferrari driver was able to take the more commanding line, braking later and getting on the power sooner. With that, sector 1 was done and the windy sector 2 would help Leclerc put more distance between himself and Verstappen.

Chart 2: CD Plot

After a few laps, the race settled into the typical cadence, with Leclerc and Verstappen leading the field with their ferocious pace as shown in Chart 2. As the first stint carried on, Verstappen’s performance started to tail away as the Red Bull’s lower downforce setup and issues with brake cooling with result in greater tyre degradation. This is showcased by Leclerc starting to pull away around lap 9 in the figure above.

With pace falling away, Red Bull opted to pull the strategy lever and went for the undercut. As a result, Verstappen was able to reduce Leclerc’s lead by 3 seconds and be within DRS range with fresher and warm tyres. The next three laps would serve as vindication that the new regulations promote better racing due to less dirty Air.

Chart 3: Mini Sector Comparison for Laps 17 to 19.

On lap 17, Verstappen trailed Leclerc, though had the benefit of slipstream, DRS and aggressive deployment of his energy store. The combination of these things helped Verstappen take the lead from the Monegasque driver. However, with Leclerc now behind, he had access to these same benefits. As a result, Leclerc was able to get alongside and ahead of Verstappen in the rundown to Turn 4. This pattern repeated on the next lap, though the telemetry shows that Leclerc slowed even further into T1 in order to repeat the move with greater conviction. Verstappen came back for a third course on lap 19, this time locking up and failing to get ahead into turn. As a result, Leclerc was able to perform a getaway and finally start to open up a gap.

 Chart 4: Lap Times Compared - Verstappen vs. Leclerc

With Verstappen’s tyres now shot and brake temperatures rising, the race fell back to its earlier rhythm – with Leclerc starting to pull away as the Red Bull struggled with greater degradation toward the end of the stint, evidenced in Chart 4. Red Bull attempted another undercut, though weren’t able to execute it as well as the previous attempt. This is because Ferrari’s pitstop was half a second faster than Red Bull’s and Leclerc had a greater margin in hand.

Verstappen’s pace on the medium tyre fell away from that of Leclerc’s as shown in Chart 4 and tempted another pitstop. Unfortunately for Red Bull, this was one lap prior to the safety car for Pierre Gasly’s broken down AlphaTauri. Hindsight tells us that this was not the last of Red Bull’s misfortunes, as Verstappen would go on to experience multiple car issues that would eventually result in his retirement.

With his main rival now out of contention, Leclerc just needed to bring the car home. Verstappen’s exit from the race also promoted the other Ferrari of Carlos Sainz into P2, thus securing Ferrari a 1-2 finish. And while Sainz’s performance was out of touch with Leclerc, his performance serves as another reminder for why this time feels different for Ferrari. Sainz still had strong pace relative to that of the other Red Bull in Sergio Perez and affirms the sense that Ferrari’s performance today was exactly that – based on true performance on not some gambit. If both drivers can continue to deliver good pace alongside good strategy decisions, then Ferrari could be in prime position for a first championship since 2008.

Haas and Alfa Romeo Challenge the Establishment

F1’s new era is not just based on the changes to the aero regulations, but also those relating to the budget gap and time allowed for testing in the wind tunnel. Put simply, the teams that finished lower down the order last year had greater potential to develop their cars and make a large impact with the new regulations. Many teams were hoping to ascend the pecking order with F1’s big shakeup. Haas and Alfa Romeo were those teams that were successful in their execution.

Chart 2 from earlier shows the mighty performance from Kevin Magnussen, who finished the race in P5, securing Haas’ first points finish in over 2 years. Of course, Magnussen was helped by the retirements of both Red Bull’s and Gasly, though Chart 2 showcases how the Danish driver’s pace was head and shoulders above the rest of the midfield and at times on par with the Mercedes. Both Mercedes drivers were well off the pace of the front two teams – as the German outfit struggles with overcoming its porpoising issues without adjusting ride height. With Gasly out of the race, there wasn’t anyone who could threaten Magnussen’s place at the head of the midfield.

Chart 5: Lap Times Compared - Focus on Bottas and Magnussen

Valtteri Bottas was another who put in a tremendous performance although the was potential for more had the Finn not struggled on lap 1. Bottas had terrific pace throughout the race, especially with the long second stint and aggressive third stint. However, Bottas’ second stint could have been much better had it not been for losing all those places in the opening lap nor getting stuck behind Yuki Tsunoda for much of the first half of the second stint. Nevertheless, the Finn was able to compensate by going long and then pushing aggressively in the third stint. The late safety car put the Finn back in touch with the Haas of Kevin Magnussen and both showed similarly strong pace in the final stint.

Could Bottas have challenged or even triumphed over Magnussen had the start of the race gone differently? We’ll never know but hopefully the next race in Jeddah can provide clues as to where these two teams stand relative to one another.

Chart 6: Lap Times Compared - Zhou vs Alpine

Zhou Guanyu scored points on his debut and helped Alfa Romeo open the season with a double points finish. Zhou also struggled like Bottas in the opening lap, falling back several places. However, just like his teammate, the Chinese driver climbed up the field after a compromised first stint. Zhou delivered solid pace for the remainder of the race, matching the likes of Esteban Ocon and Yuki Tsunoda. He was unlucky not to finish ahead of Fernando Alonso who was plagued by poor tyre wear for the entirety of the race. Alonso’s pace curves show a steeper profile relative to that of teammate Ocon, who finished up the field despite being hit with a 5 second time penalty for an incident on lap 1.

Nevertheless, it will be fascinating to observe how the midfield battle with playout between Haas, Alfa Romeo, Alpine and AlphaTauri. I suspect it will all come down to the season-long development content.

Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix

What a start to the season! Will Ferrari be able to build momentum with its fast and reliable package? Can Red Bull bounce back from their reliability woes? Can Mercedes find a fix for their own issues and how long will it take? How will the midfield battle shake-up? And, while not discussed in this review, will McLaren be able to come back or is this going to be a year of pain? The next stop is at the fast and perilous streets of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Who will survive the walls? See you in the next one.