Right Place, Right Time Favours Verstappen over Leclerc and Perez - Saudi Arabia 2022
Source: FIA
For the second race in a row, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc duelled it out on track, with the Dutchman claiming victory by a little over 0.5 seconds. The timing sheet doesn’t tell the full story as the early stages of the race had all eyes peeled on Sergio Perez as he campaigned to convert a maiden pole to a first win for the 2022 season. So how did we go from Perez starting P1 and finishing P4 to Verstappen starting P4 and finishing P1? Let’s jump straight into it.
Bait and Switch
Chart 1: Cumulative Delta Plot with Perez’s Pit Window
Despite the notorious reputation of the Jeddah circuit, there were no heroics into turn 1 of lap 1 nor any particular issues for the opening laps of the race. The most notable detail would be Verstappen claiming P3 from Carlos Sainz who had forfeited the inside line into turn 1. Not soon after this, the race found its rhythm and the drivers hunkered down and focussed on race pace and tyre management. The front runners had a similar pace with only Sainz starting to fall away from the other Red Bulls and teammate Leclerc. From lap 10, Leclerc was eating away at Perez’s lead and coming within the undercut region from lap 13 as shown in Chart 1. At the time, it seemed that the Ferrari had the better performance on the medium tyre, suffering less from degradation. On lap 14, Leclerc comes onto the radio advocating for the undercut strategy to nab track position from Perez. Red Bull decide to respond on the next lap while Leclerc stays out to inherit the lead of the race. Then, as if it was destined by fate, Nicholas Latifi binned it into the wall triggering a safety car and allowing the rest of the field the opportunity to claim a free pit stop. This was hard luck for Perez who would go from the lead of the race to P4 where he would end up finishing. And while it’s no question that Ferrari got lucky here, did Red Bull make a mistake responding to Ferrari’s bait?
Chart 1 plots an additional line that tracks where Perez would have expected to come out on track if he opted to pit. This is calculated by adding the average expected time loss from a pit stop (in this case ~ 22 seconds) to Perez’s cumulative performance. From this, we can see that for the entirety of the first stint, Perez was likely to come back onto the track behind the Mercedes of George Russell. The risk of this was at its lowest at around lap 14, but the relative pace difference between Perez and Russell was indicating that a better opportunity was around the corner. The other thing to remember is that since Leclerc was behind Perez, he too would face the same risk of falling behind Russell. So why bother pitting? Perez’s pace on the medium tyre relative to Leclerc must have been vulnerable enough that waiting for another lap or two was not an option. And since the chasing car has the advantage of having the freedom of when to pull the trigger, Red Bull had to act preemptively if things were this on the edge.
Chart 2: Perez’s Time Loss from Pitting Before the Safety Car
And as Leclerc stormed past the pit straight, Perez indeed did come out behind Russell and faced the difficult task of pushing out a competitive out-lap while being hindered by traffic from Russell. Though it wasn’t long before the entire exercise was moot due to the deployment of the safety car. The net impact of these things is reflected in Chart 2, as Leclerc was able to net himself a circa 5-second advantage to claim the lead of the race. Following a tactically effective safety car restart from Leclerc, the race settled into its second cadence.
Ferrari Favoured the Mediums and the Corners. Red Bull Relished the Hards and the Straights
Chart 3: Lap Times Compared - Verstappen vs Leclerc
Ferrari held the cards in the first part of the race, but Red Bull got the upper hand in the second part of the race, with Chart 3 showcasing this tale of two halves. Leclerc was consistently faster than Verstappen in the first stint. However, the second stint is a lot more evenly matched, with both drivers trading the fastest laps. Leclerc’s pace was starting to show greater signs of dispersion from lap 30 onwards, though was still able to manage the gap back to Verstappen. This all changed with the onset of the virtual safety car (VSC) on lap 38. In theory, there should be no gain or loss due to a VSC since all drivers are required to drive to a predetermined lap time that is roughly 30-40% slower than full racing speed. In practice, it’s not so easy to drive exactly at this benchmark lap time and therefore drivers must do their best to adhere to the lap time by staying within an allowable delta that is measured between different timing loops across the circuit. There are three key things that can result in one driver gaining an advantage over the other:
there is a margin for error with the delta as well as the discrete measurement between timing loops;
where the safety car finishes for each driver will dictate whether the driver enters/exits a corner/straight at the optimal speed or not; and
the ability to have better tyre warm-up.
The second and third points usually carry the greatest influence and this time was no exception.
Chart 4: Telemetry Comparison for Lap 41
Chart 4 above hones in on the moment where the VSC ended - at approximately turn 4 (T4) near the 1000m mark. Prior to this you can see the ebbs and flows in speed between Verstappen and Leclerc as they danced around the delta to the VSC benchmark time. Had the VSC ended at one of these points, the driver with the higher relative speed would receive the advantage. But this isn’t the only advantage to consider.
Chart 5: Effect of VSC and Tyre Warm-Up on Lap Time
It’s worth noting that Red Bull opted for a lower downforce setup while Ferrari went the other way with high downforce. As a result, the Ferrari had the advantage through the tight and twisty corners in sector 1 while the Red Bull had the upper hand in sectors 2 and 3 which were dependent on straight-line speed. The VSC ending at T4 effectively meant that sector 1 was shorter for that one lap - thus favouring Verstappen and hurting Leclerc. To make matters worse for the Ferrari driver, Verstappen was able to warm up and activate his hard tyres better than Leclerc, allowing Verstappen to be within the DRS range. This is highlighted in the comparison shown in Chart 5 whereby Verstappen nets a ~1.2-second advantage against Leclerc on lap 41, with lap 36 shown as a reference. Put together with the Red Bull’s natural advantage in straight-line speed and Verstappen was in a prime position to challenge for the lead of the race.
Chart 6: Minisector Speed Comparison - Last 10 Laps
With the gap all but closed, it all came down to racecraft and tactics to determine who would come out in front. Chart 6 shows the back and forth duel between Verstappen and Leclerc while also exemplifying the advantages of each car - Red Bull on the straights and Ferrari in the corners. Verstappen is able to get the job done on lap 47 and able to carry the advantage into sector 1 for the first time in many laps. But now Leclerc gets the benefit of the DRS and is shown with the change in colour for the run down to T27 for the final 3 laps. And while Leclerc was closing in, it would ultimately fall short with Verstappen taking the chequered flag with less than a second to spare.
While Chart 6 showcases the battle between the two potential championship rivals, it also shows that these two cars are able to compete with one another lap after lap. This is a distinct departure from the racecraft from the prior era, whereby once an overtake was done you would rarely see a repeat contest. This race makes it 2 for 2 in terms of signs pointing toward the new regulations being a step forward in promoting better and closer racing.
Honourable Mentions and Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Plaudits go to Verstappen and Leclerc for their exciting content and commiserations go to Perez who was taken out of the fight through no fault of this own. Alpine also had a strong showing albeit for Fernando Alonso’s power unit issue while Esteban Ocon claimed P6 and a solid points haul. Russell was the best of the rest in a rather lonely race while his teammate managed to finish in the points after taking the wrong direction with setup on Saturday. Lando Norris brought McLaren back into the points, losing out to Ocon at the line.
The next stop is Melbourne. After the cancellations of the last two Grand Prix, Albert Park will make its return while donning a revised track layout. This will add another element of uncertainty as everyone continues to wrap their head around these new regulations. Will it be Ferrari or Red Bull who come out on top? Will Mercedes take a step forward or continue to struggle? And who will the midfield shake out?
Regardless of what happens, I will be looking forward to my home race and being able to see cars at Albert Park once more. I look forward to bringing you coverage of round 3 from the ground. See you next time.
