F1 Post-Race Analysis: Styria 2021 — Back to the Future?
Source: FIA
Max Verstappen took the chequered flag in style to deliver Red Bull a home victory in Austria. The win made it 4 in a row for Red Bull as they also inflicted Mercedes with their longest winless streak in the turbo-hybrid era.
Already pundits are referring to the glory days of Red Bull where they won the World Driver’s Championship 4 times with Sebastian Vettel at the helm. And while a statement like that feels premature, Verstappen’s lights to flag victory is reminiscent of Lewis Hamilton’s dominant wins as recently as last year.
No doubt the 2021 season is a victim of its own entertainment. Fans have been lucky to see 7 rounds of fierce competition and unpredictability at the front of the field — something normally reserved for the midfield. However, an unchallenged drive at the front and a dirty-air plagued train in the mid-field provided a race that can only be described as an outlier. With such a good run it’s no wonder that the Styrian Grand Prix left fans wanting more.
Be that as it may, there were still questions. Questions that can be answered by taking a look at the data! Let’s jump straight into it!
The Constructors Battle Between Red Bull and Mercedes is Underrated
It may have been a runaway victory for Verstappen and an assumed second place for Hamilton, but it was anything but for their respective teammates. The fight between Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas is rapidly proving to be the underrated duel of the year. The rivalry between this two will prove to be instrumental in determining the outcomes of the World Constructors Championship.
Given Red Bull’s impressive machinery this year, just how did Bottas edge out Perez?
Figure 1: Gap to Verstappen — Bottas Prowess or Red Bull Blunder?
It hasn’t been the easiest of seasons for Bottas and this weekend proved to be no exception. The Finn was on the back foot for the race after suffering a 3-place grid penalty for committing a pitlane safety infraction during a free practice session. Bottas was able to do damage limitation by qualifying in P2 to then start the race in P5. Nevertheless, Bottas still started behind Perez and had all the work to do.
Both Perez and Bottas were hampered by Lando Norris in the first 10 laps of the Grand Prix as seen in Figure 1 above. After this Perez was able to maintain a consistent gap to Bottas, a sign that either Perez was preserving tyres or that Bottas couldn’t make progress in the dirty air. By all counts, it seemed that Perez was on his way to the podium. That is until the pitstop phase of the race.
Perez was safe from a Bottas undercut. But a slow stop eroded the Mexican’s margin of safety meaning that he lost the position. The tides had turned and now Perez had to suffer from the issues of dirty air. Red Bull then made the switch to a 2-stop strategy; hoping to repeat Verstappen’s success from France. And they were close! Perez finished only half a second back from Bottas. But this begs the question: why did Red Bull gamble on the 2-stop?
Figure 2: Lap Times Compared — Understanding the Hard Tyre through Raikkonen and Leclerc
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and while it may be easy to say Red Bull made the wrong call based on the result, it’s important to understand how that decision was made before casting judgment. The race was largely expected to be a one-stop — and heavily reliant on the durability of the hard tyre. But could the tyre go the distance? It’s worth asking the question, especially after the events of France.
Figure 2 compares the race pace of Perez against Kimi Raikkonen and Charles Leclerc — both drivers who used the hard tyre early on. The circled area shows that the lap times became more volatile and unpredictable after about 25–33 laps into the stint. Perez made his first stop on lap 26 and had to survive 45 laps on the hard tyre. Given the performance of Raikkonen and Leclerc (albeit on a higher fuel load and in less capable machinery), there was sufficient reason to have doubts about the longevity of the hard tyre. Another point to consider is the improvement in lap times that Leclerc managed after switching to the medium tyre. Putting these two elements together gave a compelling case for pursuing the two stop.
Figure 3: Lap Times Compared — Bottas vs Perez
So despite the two supporting elements, why were Red Bull not able to convert the strategy to another podium? Bottas deserves some credit as shown by the insights of Figure 3. The Finn was able to maintain the consistency in lap times that Raikkonen and Leclerc could not. And while Perez had amazing speed on the mediums, it was a little more volatile than desired. Ultimately it was by the slimmest of margins that Red Bull missed out on another podium. One lap here or there could have made the difference but that is within the margin of error.
A Strong Showing from Ferrari, but Not Full Potential
Figure 4: Gap to Norris — Ferrari Win but Ricciardo Loses
After a dreadful experience in France, Ferrari came back strong in Styria. To the surprise of many, the Maranello outfit was able to reverse the misfortunes of tyre wear and strategy from the last race and turn it into a powerful asset.
Figure 4 tells the story of Carlos Sainz’s dominant drive. Whilst most of his peers pitted by lap 28, the Spaniard carried on until lap 41. Not only was a 41 lap stint on the medium tyre impressive, but it yielded Sainz two key benefits.
Firstly, Sainz would have 13 lap fresher tyres compared to Lance Stroll and 10 lap fresher tyres than his key rival Lando Norris. The second was that Sainz was able to benefit from clean air between laps 29 to 41. This clean air is where Sainz was able to dramatically close the gap to Norris and set himself up to overcut the entire midfield.
Figure 5: Pit Strategy Analysis — Sainz’s Bonkers Overcut
Figure 4 showed Sainz’s progress and pace. Figure 5 shows how critical this pace was in outperforming the overcut. Based on the analysis in Figure 5, Sainz was expected to come in P9 if he pitted on lap 40. However, by delaying one lap, that expectation fell to P11. The variance in position based on a single lap shows how tight the midfield train was. Yet despite pitting a lap later than what seemed optimal, Sainz’s pace was good enough to overcome the slim margins and rejoin in P7, just behind Stroll. Figure 4 shows that Sainz made quick work of the Canadian and sailed his way to P6.
While Sainz’s race was clinical, Leclerc’s race was chaotic yet just as fruitful. After getting caught up in a Lap 1 incident and dropping to the back of the field, the Monegasque buckled in for a massive recovery drive.
Figure 6: Lap Times Compared — The Glory of Clean Air
The key to Leclerc’s success was how much of the race he spent in clean air. Figure 5 shows that despite being towards the back of the field, Leclerc’s pace was comparable to that of Norris in P5 (also running in clean air).
Leclerc encountered traffic for the first time at lap 30 and endured for just 7 laps before pitting for a set of medium tyres. Following this, he was able to make quick work of Raikkonen and Ricciardo before coming up to the back of traffic again. However, Leclerc was able to make his way through Tsunoda, Alonso and Stroll due to his fresher tyres. From here it was a clear road to the finish line.
As good a drive as it was, it was a drive that was born out of Leclerc’s own mistakes. His collision with Pierre Gasly dropped him to the back of the field and in turn robbed Ferrari of an even better result. Finishing P6 and P7 versus McLaren’s P5 and P13 is a good outcome for Ferrari, but it’s not the maximum.
What Happened to Daniel Ricciardo?
It was another lacklustre result for the Australian, especially when measured against the performance of his teammate. However, Ricciardo was the victim of poor fortune as a temporary engine issue cost him around 5 seconds in the early stages of the race (see Figure 4). This dropped him back into traffic where he spent the rest of the race struggling in dirty air. Not even a late overcut was useful in overtaking Raikkonen and ultimately the Australian had to settle for no points.
Figure 7: Qualifying Analysis — Ricciardo’s Struggles
And while there were misfortunes in the race, there were none in qualifying. Ricciardo’s qualifying performance was simply not good enough. Figure 7 shows an aggregation of Riccardo's best sector times from qualifying compared to his peers. The Australian is almost 0.8s off the pace of his teammate, of which most of the fallout comes in the slower parts of the track. As the Styrian Grand Prix has shown, getting stuck in the dirty air can be a taxing experience. Ricciardo needs to find form in qualifying to avoid further pain in races.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
It’s Deja Vu in Austria as F1 returns for another go at the Red Bull Ring. But with Pirelli bringing one-step softer tyres, will there be a mix up in the field? Can Mercedes fight back or will Verstappen extend his lead? Can George Russell finally secure points in a Williams? And can Pierre Gasly find redemption for being taken out on Lap 1?
Part 3 of the tripleheader is just around the corner.
See you all again soon!
