F1 Post-Race Analysis: Azerbaijan 2021 — Is Vettel Back?
Source: FIA
It’s the 6th of June 2021. Sergio Perez, Sebastian Vettel and Pierre Gasly are on the same podium. Read that again.
After dominating the sport for the last 6 years, few would have predicted that Mercedes would not make an appearance on the podium for two consecutive races. This is the team’s first zero points finish since a double mechanical retirement in Austria 2018. There were no mechanical faults in this Grand Prix. Mercedes’ absenteeism came down to a rare mistake from Lewis Hamilton and a truly lacklustre performance from Valtteri Bottas.
Perfect ground for Max Verstappen and Red Bull to extend their lead in both championships. And while Verstappen gave a champion’s drive, lady luck was not kind as a high-speed tyre failure took him out of the race. This would have been game over for Red Bull based on their experiences from 2019. But Sergio Perez had other plans.
The Mexican had a re-awakening and found harmony with the RB16B to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. And in doing so cemented his foothold in the team and demonstrated that he can deliver where Alexander Albon and Pierre Gasly previously couldn’t.
Amongst all the drama and tension, it was Sebastien Vettel who stood tall. Rejuvenated by a second wind of form, the German delivered a faultless drive reminiscent of the Vettel of old.
And it was Pierre Gasly who returned to the podium after a defiant battle with pole sitter — Charles Leclerc. A hard-fought slog, but a performance that is beginning to feel less surprising with time.
And there was more! BUT, what did the data say for all the major talking points? Let’s jump straight into it!
Figure 1: 2021 Azerbaijan GP Lap Chart
Vettel Comes Good
Something changed in Monaco. A breakthrough perhaps. Whatever it was, Vettel is finding form with his AMR21. There’s no doubt that the second-place finish was contingent on the misfortunes and mistakes of Verstappen and Hamilton.
Be that as it may, Vettel was there to pick up the pieces, to capitalise on the events of the day and deliver the goods for the team. Even if nothing happened to the championship protagonists, a P4 finish for Vettel would still be commendable.
And as the analysis will show, it’s less about where Vettel finished and more about the overall performance that is worthy of such praise.
Figure 2: Winners and Losers of Qualifying
The story of Vettel’s race began on Saturday afternoon after a drama-filled qualifying session. Vettel was building the momentum for the second run in Q2 before the session was stopped due to a red flag. As a result the German narrowly missed out on another Q3 appearance.
To make matters worse, Vettel had the pace to make it into Q3, as his ‘perfect lap’ was competitive enough (see Figure 2). The large gap relative to Vettel’s time was due to a lock-up in his first run in Q2 which potentially cost him a P9 grid slot.
Ordinarily, this would see Vettel as a loser of qualifying but starting P11 allowed the German to start the race on any tyre he desired. This set the scene for a crucial element to his road to the podium.
Figure 3: Gap to Perez — Vettel’s Journey Through the Field
Figure 3 above shows how Vettel’s race was shaped by two key factors. The first was the execution of his strategy and the second was his overtaking.
With the top 10 forced to run old soft tyres, Vettel was free to use a fresh set of soft tyres. This gave Vettel an additional tyre life relative to his peers as well as a grip advantage for the start of the race. While not captured in Figure 3 above (with aim of not having too many lines), Vettel gained two places on the opening lap. From here Vettel settled on the difficult task of minimising lap time while minimising tyre wear.
Figure 4: Lap Times Compared — Vettel vs Gasly vs Leclerc
Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.
Figure 4 showcases the success that Vettel had in this task. Despite putting in a first stint that almost doubled that of Leclerc and Gasly, Vettel was doing better on old soft tyres compared to new hard tyres (see laps 9 to 18). And it’s not as though Gasly and Leclerc suffered strategy errors. Figure 4 also shows how their pace on the soft tyre was beginning to deteriorate (particularly for the Ferarri). Aston Martin reacted similarly. As soon as Vettel’s pace begun to match that of the hard tyre, they pulled the trigger on a pitstop.
Figure 5: Overcut Analysis
Figure 5 takes the insights on race performance from Figure 4 and translates them into implications for track position. If Vettel had responded to the first set of pitstops (around laps 8 to 11), he would have come out in P13 approximately and left to survive till the end of the race. By going long and maintaining the faster pace, Aston Martin and Vettel were able to establish a pit window from laps 15–18 that would slot him in P7. Not only that, but the German would have a significant tyre life advantage compared to the others.
This is exactly how it played out, with Vettel rejoining only a couple of seconds (see Figure 3) behind Leclerc — the pole sitter.
Figure 6: Lap Times Compared — Vettel vs The Front Runners
Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.
Looking at Figures 4 and 6 shows that not only was Vettel’s pace on the hard tyre superior to Leclerc and Gasly but that it was within touch with the front runners as well. Vettel was closing the gap until a safety car brought the pack back together again.
And just as the German overtook two cars in the opening lap, he once again made full use of the safety restart to overtake both Leclerc and Gasly. Everything up to this point was already enough to earn driver of the day assertively. But Vettel was also able to withstand the pressure of a final race restart due to the red flag. With Verstappen crashing out and Hamilton going into the run-off of turn 1, Vettel was able to inherit and maintain P2.
Perez Made The Overcut Work Too!
Figure 7: Overcut Analysis
Vettel wasn’t the only one making moves and bringing speed to the streets of Baku. Perez was another one to make bold overtakes early in the race and keep himself in the mix with Verstappen and Hamilton. But it was the pace that he extracted after Hamilton’s pit stop that proved to be the most vital in the whole Grand Prix.
Figure 7 shows how Perez was always lagging Hamilton in theoretical track position after pitting. But just as he came into clean air, he was able to push hard enough to open up a nice pit window for himself. This is despite suffering from a slow pitstop (similar to Hamilton being held up by Gasly). From there it was the reverse situation, with Hamilton always at the heels of Perez but never able to get in front.
Perez came into his own and was able to deliver to Red Bull what they had been missing for the last two years. A dependable second driver that can stay in the mix at the front but also serve as a vital arrow in Red Bull’s strategic quiver. Perhaps it’s a return to the days of Vettel and Webber?
Where Was Bottas?
Figure 8: Gap to Perez — A Tale of Bottas’ Misery
These are telling times for Bottas. After suffering from misfortune in Monaco (and even being blamed for it) to not getting a tow in Q3, Bottas is getting no love from either lady luck or Mercedes.
Bottas played an instrumental part in helping Hamilton start P2 while languishing down in P10. However, Figure 2 from earlier shows that Bottas had more pace. Even with Vettel not making it into Q3, his perfect lap was better than Fernando Alonso and therefore he should have at least started P9.
Regardless, P9 is nothing special, particularly if you cannot overtake. And while Bottas was undercut by Lando Norris, that is also because his pace was not good enough.
However, Figure 8 shows a more damning story in that Bottas spent laps 14 to 30 stuck behind Norris unable to overtake. It wasn’t long before he was out of touch with the top 6.
However, a safety car brought the Finn back into play. But it was those around him that were able to capitalise on the opportunity while Bottas continued to struggle and fall back the order.
Figure 9: Lap Times Compared — Bottas vs Backmarkers
Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.
The history books will tell a flattering story for Bottas as Hamilton’s mistake meant the Briton finished behind his teammate. Mercedes are unlikely to share the same consideration, as Bottas’ lacklustre performance meant there were no points salvaged for the team in the constructor’s fight. To make matters worse, Figure 9 shows that Bottas’s pace was not much better than that of George Russell in a Williams. A Williams… And let’s not forget, he was bested by Russell in equal machinery.
Honourable Mentions
It seems crazy to be mentioning an Alpha Tauri finishing on the podium as an honourable mentioned, yet that’s where we are. It was another remarkable drive from Gasly who continues to impress. Figures 3 and 4 showcase the Frenchman’s pace and how he did well to manage the gap to Leclerc. And crucially Gasly did well to fight off Leclerc’s late charge in the final laps of the race.
Alonso was another who outperformed in the final laps of the race to bring the car home in P6. Yuki Tsunoda and Lando Norris also both did well to collect decent points after both faced issues in qualifying.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Whether it was luck or mistakes, both championship protagonists will walk away from Baku with some heavy thoughts. While there was no change to the championship lead, it will entice many a ‘what could have been’. How will these drivers face the associated psychological challenges?
Just how much are Mercedes ruing zero points after switching to a brand new power unit? How much will damage limitation will Red Bull be able to achieve by delaying their new power unit?
How will the mid-field fare with Aston Martin and Alpha Tauri building some momentum? Will McLaren and Ferrari have more competition for grabbing points in their battle for P3?
It was a big weekend in Formula 1 and some rest will be welcome before a big tripleheader. The season battles and storylines are starting to take shape. Till next time.
