F1 Post-Race Analysis: Monaco 2021 — All or Nothing

The jewel in Formula 1’s crown has returned. But the crown did not return to its last victor — Lewis Hamilton. Instead, it went to Max Verstappen as he became a first-time winner around the streets of Monte Carlo.

But it wasn’t just Verstappen’s win that was important. It was also Mercedes’ unlucky and lacklustre showing. As such Verstappen and Red Bull have both been catapulted to the top of the standings in both championships.

Just how did it all go down? Let’s jump straight into this and more.

Figure 1: 2021 Monaco GP Lap Chart

The Race at Monaco Starts on Saturday. It Simply Ends on Sunday.

Even if you haven’t been to the grandiose locale of Monte Carlo, it doesn’t take much to work out just how tight and twisty the race track is (google maps if your friend). And if there were any doubts about how easy it would be to overtake around this place, Figure 1’s relatively unchanging lines ought to answer those questions rather bleakly. It’s no wonder then that if there’s one qualifying session to get right all year, it’s going to be at Monaco.

So how did the field stack up?

Figure 2: Top 10 Qualifiers

It was Charles Leclerc who took a surprise pole position for two reasons. The first was that the pace of the Ferrari was beyond the expectations of many. The second was due to Leclerc’s mistake on his final push lap that saw him crash into the barriers and bring out a red flag ending the session early. Verstappen, Bottas and Sainz were all denied their finals runs and had to accept the order as it was. The circumstances of Leclerc’s pole may have been a surprise but the disappointment of his rivals was not.

Could the others have done better in their prior laps? Did they leave time on the table?

Figure 3: Gap to the Perfect Lap

Figure 3 lays bare which drivers came closest to achieving peak performance by comparing the best valid lap time against a benchmark based on the summation of a driver’s best sector times. The smaller the gap, the less time was left on the table.

Based on this, Norris was the only driver in the top 10 that was able to achieve the perfect lap. Leclerc was just shy of his best time but it was good enough for pole position regardless. While Perez, Verstappen, Hamilton, Sainz and Bottas all had materially more to give.

Would this have materially changed the lineup for Sunday’s race?

Figure 4: Change in Grid Position with Perfect Laps

Figure 4 goes directly to answer that question by showing how the grid would change if everyone qualified according to their perfect laps. Based on this it is Bottas who would have benefitted the most and claimed pole position. Verstappen would be the biggest loser, falling behind both Bottas and Sainz. And even though Perez had the biggest gap to his best lap, the improvement would only get him one grid slot closer to the front.

Unfortunately, the red flag means that these inferences need to be taken with a grain of salt. Before the Leclerc crash, Verstappen had already proceeded to set the fastest time in sector 1. He and the others had momentum coming into their final runs. What could have been will never be known.

And while it couldn’t have been known on Saturday, both Leclerc and Bottas’ misfortunes on Sunday turned the red flag questions into academic considerations. With both drivers out of the race due to mechanical faults, the fight for the win was only ever going to be between Verstappen and Sainz.

Could Ferrari Challenge Red Bull?

Figure 5: Lap Times Compared — Sainz vs Verstappen

Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.

Ferrari had the pace over one lap, but what about over a race distance? Figure 5 above shows Sainz pace compared to both Verstappen and Norris. Sainz was able to match Verstappen in the middle part of the first stint (laps 10 to 20) but would lose out in the latter part. Sainz was faster during the earlier part of the second stint but would eventually lose the pace relative to Verstappen for the remainder of the race.

Does this mean the Ferrari was slow? Not necessarily. It is more likely that Verstappen was free to manage the pace that suited him, and could speed up in response to any threat from Sainz. And when Sainz’s pace is compared to Norris, it is clear to see that the Ferrari had real pace around the streets of Monaco.

What Happened to Lewis Hamilton?

Figure 6: Gap to Verstappen

Hamilton always had his work cut out for him starting the race in P7 (see Figure 2 earlier). But it was a misstep on strategy by the Mercedes pitwall that saw his race go from bad to worse. As can be seen in Figure 6 above, Hamilton was just behind Gasly before the pitstop (approximately lap 28). After the stop, Hamilton ended up still behind Gasly but also behind Vettel — who had got the jump on both of them. From that point onwards the race was a procession until the finish.

So what went wrong with the strategy?

Figure 7: Overcut Analysis

Mercedes triggered the undercut as a means to get ahead of Gasly. A successful undercut strategy would have required Mercedes to perform a better out lap than Gasly’s in lap to the pits. But Hamilton was not able to achieve this due to the difficulty in getting the hard tyres in the optimal temperature window. This meant he didn’t have the grip he needed to outpace Gasly on his older soft tyres.

As this played out, Vettel was able to stay out just that little bit longer and continue to get better laps on his older soft compound tyres. Ultimately, Vettel’s laps were good enough to not only leapfrog Hamilton but also battle Gasly for the position — which he was able to claim.

Figure 8: Lap Times Compared — Vettel vs Gasly vs Hamilton

Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.

Figure 8 gives some additional colour to why Mercedes opted for the strategy. Hamilton’s pace in the first stint was comparable or slightly worse than that of Gasly (shown by the closely overlapping lines). The Mercedes was also struggling in the dirty air and the undercut was the best opportunity to clear the obstacle and get into clean air.

However, Figure 8 also reveals how Vettel had the better pace from lap 20 onwards. Due to Aston Martin opting for the overcut, Vettel was able to extend this advantage and convert it into the desired position. Even though Vettel had lost his pace advantage by lap 55, he had done enough to stay ahead and make it to the end.

Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix

From one street circuit to another, Formula 1 will return to Baku. It’s a diverse track with technical corners and a high-speed final sector. The track has seen plenty of drama over the years. Will 2021 be a repeat?

There’s also a new leader in town. How will Verstappen fare with handling the pressure and the expectation. Will he be able to continue the momentum? Will Mercedes be able to bounce back? And how will the exciting fight between McLaren and Ferrari continue to play out?

There are just so many questions left to be answered. This season is certainly shaping out to be an exciting one. Till next time.