F1 Post-Race Analysis: France 2021 — Will France be Telling for the Title Fight?

France wasn’t boring!? Yes, you read that right. If Spain was ‘A New Hope’ then France was the ‘Empire Strikes Back’.

Against the odds, France delivered a strategy-driven spectacle that endured until the final laps of the race. And it was Red Bull, not Mercedes, that pulled the strategic masterstroke. There were even some tasty overtakes along the way. What more could you ask for? Let’s jump straight into it.

Figure 1: 2021 French GP Lap Chart

On a Day of Strategy: Red Bull Comes Out on Top

After being absent from the last two podiums, Mercedes would have been keen to find a turning point in momentum. The tight and twisty nature of street circuits has not suited the W12. No doubt, Mercedes were welcoming a change in tempo with a triple header at purpose-built race tracks.

Many expected Mercedes to do well at Paul Ricard. I also stood in this crowd (as called out by the below tweet):

After analysing the qualifying performances of the last 6 rounds leading up to the French Grand Prix, it seemed that Mercedes’ advantage over Red Bull in high-speed sectors would serve them well. The nature of the Circuit de Paul Ricard is such that the first two sectors are high speed and the final sector is slow speed. Red Bull’s slow speed advantage was not expected to overcome the deficit in the first two sectors. It was expected that Lewis Hamilton would claim pole position and have the advantage going into the race.

Except this is precisely what didn’t happen. Instead, it was Max Verstappen who claimed pole position while being relatively unchallenged. And while Verstappen didn’t maintain the lead after the first lap, the performance in qualifying showed that Red Bull’s improvements in high-speed sectors could still keep them in contention. This improved pace meant a strategic battle was still on the cards.

A Straightforward Strategy, But An Elaborate Journey

Figure 2: Gap to Verstappen — A Tale of Verstappen’s Two-Stop Strategy

As mentioned already, Verstappen had lost the lead in the first couple of corners and had all the work to do to stay in touch with Hamilton. Verstappen was stuck in a Mercedes sandwich with little help from Sergio Perez who was falling away for the first 10 laps of the race. And while this left Verstappen vulnerable to a pincer attack from Mercedes, it allowed Perez to do what he does best and that is deliver a long first stint (more on this later).

Throughout the first stint, multiple drivers were complaining of tyre degradation being greater than anticipated. This was also true of the front runners, as neither Hamilton, Verstappen or Valtteri Bottas were able to make a meaningful dent in each other’s positions. It became a classic Western gunfight. Who would shoot first?

It was Mercedes who blinked first as they opted to pit Bottas on Lap 17. With the Bottas undercut now a threat, Red Bull reacted by pitting Verstappen on Lap 18.

An undercut is a racing strategy whereby the chasing driver will pit before the leading driver in the hope to make an overtake during the pitstop period. How does this happen? If the chasing driver has a faster outlap from the pits than the competitor’s in-lap, the difference could be such that the driver behind comes out in front. Why would they lap faster? Because they have fresher tyres that have more grip compared to their competitor.

This brought into play the threat of a Verstappen undercut on Hamilton. Thus, Hamilton responded and pitted on Lap 19. But as all of this was unfolding, Verstappen, not Bottas, was fast enough to overtake their rivals. This can be seen in Figure 2 whereby Verstappen was able to find more than 3 seconds in 2 laps compared to Hamilton.

Figure 3: Lap Times Compared — VER vs HAM

The effectiveness of Verstappen’s undercut is affirmed further through the analysis in Figure 3. The chart shows both the trend pace as well as the actual lap times of both drivers. The white circle focuses on the times around the first set of pitstops. It’s clear to see that Verstappen is lapping about 1 second faster on each lap. The undercut also allowed Verstappen to have his tyres in the optimal temperature window while Hamilton still needed a heat cycle. All of this left Hamilton vulnerable to losing the position.

This raises the question: Why did Mercedes allow Verstappen to have a 2 lap advantage on Hamilton?

Figure 4: Undercut Analysis

Figure 4 analyses the pit window of the French Grand Prix. It determines where a driver would place if they were to make a pitstop on any given lap, depending on the position of the other drivers.

For most of the first stint, Hamilton enjoyed an advantage over Verstappen. However, the circled region highlights that Hamilton had the advantage on Lap 18, the same lap that Verstappen pitted. There was a high chance that Hamilton would have maintained the lead if Mercedes pulled the trigger one lap earlier.

It is difficult to understand why Mercedes waited, especially when you consider they initiated the undercut process by pitting Bottas. Why not pit Hamilton immediately after? Pushing Hamilton towards an overcut would make little sense given the tyre wear concerns.

As it would turn out, Mercedes’ lack of assertiveness would give Verstappen the margin he needed to make the undercut work. Now the burden was on Mercedes to keep pace with Verstappen and fight the problems of dirty air and tyre wear.

Figure 5: Lap Times Compared — VER vs LEC

Figure 5 compares Verstappen’s pace to Charles Leclerc. Why Leclerc? Because he was the first driver to pit for the hard tyre. Studying how his pace develops is a key input for any strategy team when determining the optimal race strategy.

Despite pitting for new tyres on Lap 14, Leclerc’s pace continued to deteriorate. The circled area of the chart also reveals that Leclerc’s pace became more volatile the longer he went into the stint. Based on the available information up to Lap 32, Red Bull had seen that the pace of the hard tyre was not very reliable. And while the Ferrari isn’t as good at managing tyres as a front running team, it is still crucial information.

This insight combined with the fact that Verstappen had track position gave Red Bull a superior advantage. By leading the race they could dictate the pace and invite Mercedes to push their tyres too much.

Coming back to Figure 2, this is exactly what we start to see. Similar to the first stint, the gaps remain close despite knowing the tyre degradation is worse than anticipated. The gap started to open up at Lap 28 which coincides with when Leclerc began to struggle. And as Bottas’ gap opened past 5 seconds, Red Bull went for their 2nd stop with Verstappen.

Why was Bottas crucial to the decision? By opening the gap to 5 seconds, it meant that the gap was likely too big for Bottas to respond to Verstappen and pose a threat. However, the more important variable here is Perez: who had extended his first stint and was best placed to complete a one-stop strategy.

This left Mercedes in a conundrum. If they pitted again, they would give up track position to Perez who could act as a rear gunner for Verstappen. By going long, Perez would have better tyres to defend with as well. In the end, it seemed as though Mercedes’ best option was to risk it by staying out.

And while the results will show that this decision wasn’t a good one, it wasn’t certain until Lap 50 where Verstappen was within DRS range of Hamilton. It may have sucked for Mercedes, but it was a delight for Formula 1 fans who enjoyed a suspense-filled battle between the two championship protagonists.

Other Honourable Mentions

Figure 6: Lap Times Compared — PER vs BOT

While Perez has already gained a mention for his significance in Verstappen’s race strategy, Perez deserves praise for making outperforming Bottas and making his way to the podium. His tyre management skills gave Red Bull the strategic weapon they needed to disrupt Mercedes. Not only that, his tyre management skills in the first stint are what allowed him to have the required pace to beat Bottas as shown in Figure 6 above. The difference in the second stint is night and day.

A Painful Day for Ferrari that Could be Pivotal in the Battle with McLaren

Figure 7: Lap Times Compared — Ferrari Vs McLaren

The McLaren boys finished in P5 and P6 while both Ferrari’s finished outside of the top 10 (and with no championship points). This gives McLaren a huge advantage in their campaign for P3 in the constructor’s championship. But what happened? Figure 7 shows that while Ferrari could keep up in the first stint, it got away from them in the second. Both McLaren’s had a significant pace advantage over both Ferraris. Leclerc’s experience was particularly painful as he had to make 2 stops.

Finally, a shoutout goes to both the Aston Martin drivers who were able to secure a double points finish with the alternate strategy (start on the hard tyre). Esteban Ocon underperformed while Pierre Gasly continues to deliver for AlphaTauri.

Watch Points for the Next Grand Prix

There are still 2 races left in the triple-header as the travelling circus heads to the hills of Austria for a doubleheader at the Red Bull Ring.

Figure 8: Sector Qualifying Pace Compared

Similar to France, it was expected that Mercedes would have the edge but with Red Bull’s improved straight-line speed, anything is possible. This is made clear in Figure 8 above that indicates Verstappen has closed the gap to Hamilton in high-speed sectors. Will Red Bull continue the momentum or will Mercedes be able to return serve?

Will Ferrari continue their slump or bounce back? How will the rest of the midfield fare? And will the high altitude and unforgiving kerbs result in a large number of retirements? Will there be a shock result?

Austria often leaves much to the imagination. And with such a tantalizing title fight, the excitement is building as we approach the weekend.

See you all again soon!