Post-Race Analysis: Imola 2021 — Lando Channels Chuck Norris Energy
Source: FIA
It was a race that had it all. Rain, spins, crashes, penalties, red flags and hard racing? You name it and Imola had it. Amongst all the carnage it was Max Verstappen that reigned supreme from Lewis Hamilton. And while all signs point to the potential for a hard fight for the championship, it was Lando Norris’ performance that stole the show. These are only a couple of the plethora of stories that came from this weekend. So let’s jump straight into it.
Figure 1: 2021 Imola GP Lap Chart
A Coming of Age Drive for Lando Norris
McLaren had a stellar 2020 season and look poised to continue the momentum. If there was any doubt of their performance, one only need to take a look at Saturday’s qualifying session. In his final run in Q3, Lando Norris was posting purple sectors (fastest sector time of anyone in that session). It was a flashback to the Mclaren of old and perhaps a beacon of hope for the future.
It brought fans to the edge of their seats, and maybe a little further too. Enough to land on their bottoms and recollect themselves to the dismay that Norris has a breach of track limits.
Figure 2 & 3: Impact of Theoretical Best Qualifying Times
A tiny mistake, but a costly one. Figure 2 on the left above highlights how much time was left on the table. Had the whole grid qualified according to their best sector times and Norris would have started in P4 as indicated in Figure 3 to the right. This left him behind his teammate in P7, with all the work to do on Sunday to achieve the optimal outcome.
And Norris did just that.
Figure 4: Gap to Norris
The red flag incident between George Russell and Valtteri Bottas created a race of two halves as showcased by Figure 4 above. In the first half, Norris made quick work of his old teammate Carlos Sainz only to be on the gearbox of his new teammate Daniel Ricciardo. Not soon after came a team radio from Norris requesting that Ricciardo make way so he can ‘unleash’ his true pace.
A cynic’s reflex would be to bemoan another cry for team orders though Figure 4 would disagree. After Ricciardo moved over on Lap 16, Norris had opened a 10-second gap by Lap 25. This left the young Briton clear to chase down the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc, albeit much further up the road.
Even if the race stopped here, it would have been a good performance, but it is in the second half where Norris comes alive. No doubt the red flag put him back in contention to fight Leclerc for the position. A fight that lasted one corner due to a tactful Mclaren pitwall opting to placed Norris on the soft tyre versus Leclerc’s medium. And while it was great to gain the position, there was almost half the race left to run on the less durable tyre.
Figure 5: Norris vs. Leclerc
Note: Safety Car periods are removed.
However, Figure 5 above would show that Norris was able to execute the perfect final stint to take his position on the podium. Not only was he able to carry the required speed advantage on Lap 35 to make the overtake, but he was also able to match or (on occasion) beat Leclerc’s long-run pace despite running the ‘worse tyre’ for the overall stint.
Figure 6: Norris vs. Peers
Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.
Figure 6 shows another lens of Norris’ stellar race pace. Smoothing the noise and focussing on regression trends highlights how Norris had the measure of teammate Ricciardo for the entire race. It is impressive to see such a consistent outperformance in trend race pace over one’s teammate. The obvious rebuttal here is that Ricciardo is still settling into a new team. That is true, but that will not take away from Norris delivering a strong performance. It will be interesting to see if this can be maintained throughout the season.
The Pendulum Swings for Verstappen
It was a near-flawless performance from the pride of the Netherlands. Storming off the line to lead into the first corner, Verstappen had no reason to look back. While the threat of a Hamilton overcut was real and narrowly avoided due to a slow stop from Mercedes, Verstappen had a strong and consistent race pace to remain level headed.
Figure 7: Verstappen vs. Peers
Figure 7 above highlights the tight fight between Verstappen and Hamilton but also the clear superiority relative to the other Mercedes and Red Bull drivers. Both Verstappen and Hamilton can operate on a different level to their teammates as both Valterri Bottas and Sergio Perez struggled to deliver the goods for very different reasons.
While Perez was able to outqualify Verstappen, his performance was hampered by mistakes and a blunder during the safety car period. Bottas on the other hand was continuing to pay the price from a poor qualifying on Saturday. But it was the shunt with contract rival George Russell that saw him spectacularly exit the race.
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A Brief Aside to Defend Valterri Bottas
It hasn’t been the strongest start of the season for Bottas in his campaign for a maiden championship. And while his pace was poor, a direct comparison to Hamilton during the Imola Grand Prix requires a caveat. That caveat is Hamilton’s major mistake was almost entirely neutralised by the red flag period caused by Bottas’ crash. It doesn’t excuse the pace differential or the fact that Hamilton can overtake where Bottas struggles. However, it is worth calling out.
Furthermore, the entire field has made a step up in performance and the gap to the front is very narrow. The top 8 spots in qualifying are separated by less than half a second. This means that Bottas is vulnerable to the same issues that Alexander Albon faced in 2020. The issue is that missing the mark in qualifying by 0.1–0.2 seconds could mean the difference between P3 and P8. This results in starting Sunday’s race on the back foot, and fighting midfield teams when you ordinarily wouldn’t.
This issue is another reason why Bottas was stuck down the field and had to fight a Williams. While the argument can be made that he shouldn’t be trawling down there in the first place, it doesn’t take away from the fact that someone still crashed into him.
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One thing is clear: the performance of Perez and Bottas will be crucial in determining the constructor’s title for 2021.
Strategic Blunders for AlphaTauri and Aston Martin
Figure 8: Tyre Crossovers
Safety Car periods are excluded.
A race that could have been for Pierre Gasly, who qualified P5 once again. The AlphaTauri looked set to deliver a promising performance. However, the team went against the grain and start the Frenchman on the extreme wet tyre. A decision they would learn to regret. Figure 8 above showcases just how much time Gasly was losing compared to those running intermediate tyres. It was so bad that it left him plumb last. The red flag was a blessing for Gasly, as we was able to wipe away the deficit and salvage points for his team. The race classification is a flattering result for a team that should have delivered more.
Aston Martin continued to be hampered by car performance issues. However they didn’t do themselves any favours with their tyre strategy gambits. Sebastien Vettel took a punt on switching to slicks. However, he was about 4–5 laps too early and lost a significant amount of time. While unfortunate, the German’s littany of car issues and penalties were a bigger problem for the team to face. That being said, his race pace was not too dissimilar to his teammate Lance Stroll who went on to finish P7 as shown below in Figure 9. Some encouraging signs following a difficult start to 2021.
Figure 9: Race Pace Compared
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
It’s neck and neck at the front of the championship — with only one point separating Hamilton and Verstappen. Will Portimao deliver another thrilling race? How will the drivers in new teams fare at this circuit? And will Bottas and Perez be able to join to fight at the front to give both teams another strategic weapon in the arsenal?
There is still so much to play for in this part of the season. Can’t wait to go racing once again.
