F1 Post-Race Analysis: Spain 2021 — One for the Strategy Enthusiasts
Formula 1 returned to Spain for a race that was unconventionally above expectations. Catalunya hasn’t always produced the most exciting racing, but this Sunday’s race showed that strategic intrigue can partly compensate for a lack of on-track action.
Ultimately it was Mercedes that took the honours but that didn’t leave the fans without questions. How did Mercedes pull it off? Why did they extend the first stint? Could Red Bull have done anything in response? Such is the mystery of strategy and a reminder that this is a team sport.
And what of Ferrari and Mclaren? How did they fair in their continuing fight for P3? With so many talking points, let’s get straight into it!
Figure 1: 2021 Spanish GP Lap Chart
Mercedes vs Red Bull … Again!
If there’s one place to be in Spain during a Grand Prix weekend, it’s pole position. The track characteristics are not so friendly for overtaking, so the best chance of winning the race is to start on pole and stay in the lead after turn 1. Simple right?
Lewis Hamilton was certainly hoping so but Max Verstappen had other plans. Coming away from the line well, Verstappen got his elbows out and wrestled his way into the lead of the Spanish Grand Prix. Now it was the Dutchman who would benefit from the track dynamics of Catalunya. Or so we thought.
Figure 2: Gap to Verstappen
It was expected that Verstappen would gallop off into the distance as Hamilton would be hindered by dirty air and chew up his tyres. But Figure 2 reveals a different story. Looking at laps 1 to 24 shows how close Hamilton was to Verstappen. The Briton was defying the expectations of dirty air and tyre degradation and was instead keeping the Dutchman very honest.
Hamilton’s tyre wear was so good that he was even able to extend the first stint another 5 laps before opting to change his tyres. Was this the right call from Mercedes? We will come back to that soon.
Dirty Air but not for Hamilton
Figure 2 shows another interesting observation. While Hamilton was able to follow in the dirty air, Valtteri Bottas was not. The Finnish driver was overtaken on the first lap by Charles Leclerc and was not able to reclaim the position until the first round of pitstops.
Looking at laps 11 to 22 shows just how much Bottas was held up. Comparing this to Bottas’ performance from lap 25 onwards emphasis the pace deficit faced from dirty air and the devastating impact it had on his race performance. However, Bottas’ experience showcases the extraordinary job Hamilton was able to achieve in the same machinery.
Sergio Perez was another driver that suffered a similar fate to Bottas. The Mexican had a poor qualifying and had his work cut out for him in the race. But he was held up by Daniel Ricciardo up until Lap 45. This put Perez out of contention for the top 4 and left Red Bull in a dire strategic position. More on this later.
Figure 3: Lap Times Compared — Mercedes v Red Bull
Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.
Figure 2 helped paint the picture of the effects of dirty air as well as Hamilton’s ability to rise above them. Figure 3 showcases what this meant in terms of trend race pace. Verstappen made the most of the clean air as he was the fastest man on track for the first 15 laps. And while he was fastest, it was not by a large margin. After lap 15, it was advantage to Hamilton, who was extracting better pace from the soft tyre until Verstappen pitted for new mediums. But it wasn’t long before he switched tyres and continued to extract good pace.
And just as the Briton looked poised to reclaim the lead near lap 43, he darted back into the pits. It was a collective head scratch amongst the audience. Did Mercedes just throw away the win? Surely there’s no way Hamilton can claw back the time and be able to make a pass around a difficult-to-overtake circuit?
It wasn’t long before it was clear that this was the superior strategy. Hamilton continued his electrifying charge and before long was on the gearbox of his championship rival. The difference in tyre performance at the point in the race was night and day and claiming the position was like stealing candy from a baby. In hindsight, it seems as if the best Verstappen could manage was P2 and fastest lap. Or was that the case?
Could Red Bull have Played a Different Hand?
Figure 4: Pit Strategy Analysis
Looking back over the race, two key moments could have affected the outcome. The first is Mercedes decision to not react immediately to Verstappen’s first pitstop. Verstappen’s pitstop was unconventionally slow and cost him about 2 seconds. Hamilton was already within striking distance and this blunder only tilted the odds further in his favour. Yet Mercedes opted to keep the driver out for another few laps. This was certainly a gift for Red Bull, especially observing the pace differential between Verstappen and Hamilton on the medium tyre.
The second moment was Red Bull’s decision to not react immediately to Hamilton’s second pitstop. While this didn’t allow Verstappen to outright undercut Hamilton, it did give the chance to neutralise the tyre differential to avoid a repeat of Hungary 2019. If Verstappen pitted on lap 44, it would have been possible to make a final stint on the soft tyre — the compound that better suited the Red Bull. So why didn’t they do it?
The answer is rather simple and boring: Valtteri Bottas. Even though the Finnish driver had a compromised race due to Leclerc, he was still within Verstappen’s pit window. As such, if Verstappen opted for the earlier second stop, he would need to overtake both Bottas and Hamilton on a track that is hard to overtake. To make matters worse, Red Bull had a tight window to respond. If you wait too long, there won’t be enough laps in the Grand Prix to claw back the time. Mercedes has successfully executed a two-pronged attack.
This begs the question: why was Verstappen fighting the Mercedes duo alone? We already know the answer is because Perez was too far down the order. Unfortunately, this is becoming too common a story for Red Bull made worse by the fact that they have a shot at the title this year. Now, more than ever, they need to have their second driver performing.
The Pendulum Swings for Ferrari
Figure 5: Lap Times Compared — Ferrari v McLaren
Trendlines are based on degree 2 polynomial regression fitted values. Please note that lap times during safety car periods are replaced with the median lap time to avoid outliers.
Figure 2 has already showcased Leclerc’s amazing drive to P4 and Figure 5 highlights it further. The Monegasque driver was in a league of his own as Figure 5 reveals his dominant race pace.
Ricciardo and Sainz were neck and neck and were locked in battle all race long. It was also Ricciardo’s first time outperforming his younger teammate in Lando Norris.
That being said, it was an off-weekend for the young Briton. His qualifying was off the 2021 trend and his pace wasn’t anything to write home about. While the turn in form is a positive step for Ricciardo, it is still too early to tell which of the Mclaren drivers has the better handle of the car.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
The travelling circus returns to Monaco — the jewel in the crown of Formula 1. And while the race weekend is normally one of glitz and glamour, it will be interesting to see how a Monaco Grand Prix fares in a COVID-19 world.
That being said there will still be plenty to keep an eye out for when it comes to racing. Qualifying in the principality has always been a marvel and it will be fascinating to see who comes out on top. Will the drivers be rusty after such a break? Will driver’s still be giving it everything knowing that any damage to the car could have a huge impact on cost caps?
And of course, how will the championship pan out in the fight at the front but also the battle for P3 between McLaren and Ferrari. There’s only one way to find out. Till next time.
