Post-Race Analysis: Portugal 2021 — It’s Beginning to Feel a Lot Like 2018
Source: FIA
If Imola was the party, then Portimao was the morning after. The first half is okay but eventually, the hangover hits you. Of course, not every race can be as thrilling as Bahrain or Imola, but Portimao left one wanting a little more. And while the excitement of the battle for the lead dissipated in the first half of the race, the strategy battle in the midfield took the baton for the second half. Who stood out amongst the rest? Let’s jump straight into it.
Figure 1: 2021 Portuguese GP Lap Chart
Hamilton Returns Serve
“Max is Starting to Learn Just How Good Lewis Hamilton is” — Nico Rosberg.
While Rosberg is never shy to compliment Hamilton (all the while complimenting himself for his triumph in 2016), he is not wrong in his observation. And as much as Verstappen may not need the irritating reminder, it does set the scene for the challenge that he is now mounting.
There is no doubt of Verstappen’s raw pace and talent, but his fight thus far has always been to take the odd-win. This time is different. With a car that can go toe-to-toe with the Mercedes, Verstappen must not only find another gear, but he must also be consistently great — such is the requirement to become a world champion.
Figure 2: Frequency of Being Fastest on Track
On the topic of consistency, Figure 2 showcases why it is so important. Figure 2 depicts the fastest time per lap stratified by the driver who set the respective time. The legend also keeps track of how many times the respective driver was the fastest man on track.
Two things stand out here. The first is that Hamilton was the fastest driver on track for almost half the race. The second is that Hamilton was the only driver to establish a consistent streak of fast laps (particularly between laps 21 to 31).
There’s no doubt that clean air was Hamilton’s friend. However, it is important to remember that Hamilton was P3 in the early stages of the race and had to overtake both his rivals. Verstappen and Bottas’ inability to find consistency hurt them here but also in terms of race pace.
Figure 3: Smoothed Lap Times Compared
Figure 3 above illustrates the trend lap times calculated for the top 4 drivers. While it is very close between Hamilton, Verstappen and Bottas, it is clear to see that Hamilton had the faster pace of the three for the majority of the Grand Prix. This is despite Bottas having the lead and benefitting from cleaner air in the first 10 or so laps of the race. Furthermore, Hamilton’s trend lap times are very tight relative to both Verstappen and Bottas. Not only did Hamilton have the better pace, but he also had it consistently as well.
As for Perez? Well, we will get onto that.
Figure 4: Did Red Bull Pit at the Right Time?
Given Hamilton’s form, did Red Bull Racing leave anything on the table? Could they have used the undercut? It is hard to know for sure, but the analysis in Figure 4 shows the right time to switch to hard tyres was around lap 35. This is based on the approximate point of intersection between the medium and hard tyre curves. Lap 35 is also exactly when Verstappen pitted for new tyres. Therefore it seems that Red Bull did what they could with Verstappen at least.
Perez on the other hand is a different story. Figure 4 also reveals the lap times of the Mexican’s extended first stint. It’s clear to see that Perez was lapping much slower than his peers and would have been better served switching to the hard tyre. Why did Red Bull leave him out? One can only guess.
Figure 5: Gap to Hamilton
Putting it all together gives the story in Figure 5. Hamilton’s strong and consistent race pace alongside his early race overtakes meant that the others couldn’t come close. However, Figure 5 above also highlights how the dirty air was so problematic. For the majority of the first stint, Verstappen’s race was dearly hampered by being stuck behind Bottas. The opposite is true for Bottas during the second stint, made worse by some short-lived power unit issues. Regardless, the damage was done and both had to fight each other for the fastest lap at the end of the Grand Prix.
Perez was also someone who suffered in dirty air behind Norris. The silver lining is that the disruptive period was short in comparison. Either way, this alongside the weaker pace meant that Perez couldn’t assist in putting pressure on the Mercedes duo.
Advantage McLaren
Figure 6: Gap to Norris
It was another strong performance from Norris, this time comfortably leading the two Ferraris. Ricciardo also produced a decent recovery drive to finish in the points after qualifying P16. That being said, the problem of starting low down the order was somewhat self-inflicted. Therefore it would be hard leaving Portimao without a feeling of ‘what could have been?’
Ferrari had their blunders, though this time it was the usual offenders by way of the strategy team. Sainz was hanging in there during the first stint. But doing a 45 lap second stint on medium tyres was no small task (unless your name is Sergio Perez). Nevertheless, Sainz was in a predicament and was unable to do anything beyond fall down the order.
Leclerc’s first stint on mediums was not much longer than Sainz’s on the soft tyre. This left him on the backfoot with a long stint on the hard tyre. Luckily for him, Alonso and Ricciardo were on different strategies and Ocon was slowed down in passing Sainz. So it was still a decent result for the Monegasque driver especially compared to the perils of his Spanish teammate.
Figure 7: McLaren vs Ferrari
Figure 7 above emphasises the observations from before. Norris’ pace resembles Hamilton’s in that it is both strong and incredibly consistent. Leclerc’s gap to Norris in the first stint highlights just how much he struggled on the medium tyre. It was smoother sailing during the second stint but by then the damage was done.
Ricciardo was always set for a tough race. Though his pace on the second stint was not competitive enough especially given the late stop. Regardless it was still not as bad as Sainz, who just kept losing pace through the race.
Figure 8: The Alpine Roars
Alpine had a cracker of a day with both cars finishing in the points. Figure 6 shows that despite both drivers opting for alternate strategies, their pace was such that they could triumph over the others and still finish close to each other. It was a performance that indicated both Ocon and Alonso achieved the potential of the car.
Figure 8 above further emphasis the newfound pace of the Alpine as both drivers are close to the McLaren benchmark. Alonso’s performance is particularly salient. Not only was he able to do a long first stint but his second stint was aggressive and fast — something that Ricciardo wasn’t able to extract.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Hamilton leads in the tussle for the championship as the travelling circus moves to Barcelona this weekend. Will Verstappen be able to put the events of Portimao to the side and focus on closing the gap? How will his campaign compare to that of Vettel’s in 2018? What will Bottas and Perez bring to that table this time around? And how is the midfield fight going to fare? Can Alpine maintain the pace?
There are still so many storylines to follow this season. Can’t wait for the next round.
